Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) stock analysis

P/E against its history

Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

P/E above the industry

Smurfit Westrock's P/E of 49.5 is above the Paper and Allied Products median of 18.7.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

Smurfit Westrock's EV/EBITDA of 8.7 is below its 5-year median of 8.9.

P/B below the industry

Smurfit Westrock's price-to-book of 1.28 is below the Paper and Allied Products median of 1.46.

Trading above fair value

The share price of $44.03 is above our fair value estimate of $33.09.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 33.1% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Revenue growing 10%+ a year

Revenue grew 32.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -30.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 1.1% over the last twelve months; the Paper and Allied Products median is 0.8%.

Guidance lowered

Smurfit Westrock lowered its full year Adjusted EBITDA outlook on Jul 29, 2026.

Gross margin slipping

Gross margin was 17.4% over the last twelve months, against 19.6% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 2.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 241588793% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was 3.0%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Smurfit Westrock's return on equity of 2.6% is above the Paper and Allied Products median of 0.3%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 1.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.6%.

Net margin above the industry

Smurfit Westrock's net margin of 1.5% is above the Paper and Allied Products median of 0.2%.

High debt

Debt is 78.1% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt trend

Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 21.6% of total debt.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 1.7 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.48 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 1.48; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Smurfit Westrock paid dividends worth 3.1% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 3.1% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Smurfit Westrock yields 3.1%.

Dividend stability

Fewer than five years of dividend history.

Not covered by earnings

Dividends take 198% of net income, leaving little room.

Not covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 110% of free cash flow.