Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) stock analysis

P/E above its 5-year median

Graphic Packaging's P/E of 16.8 is above its own 5-year median of 12.3.

P/E below the industry

Graphic Packaging's P/E of 16.8 is below the Paper and Allied Products median of 18.7.

EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

Graphic Packaging's EV/EBITDA of 8.2 is above its 5-year median of 7.9.

P/B below the industry

Graphic Packaging's price-to-book of 1.01 is below the Paper and Allied Products median of 1.46.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $11.07 is below our fair value estimate of $17.50.

Margin of safety over 20%

The price is 36.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -3.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -4.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings growth not accelerating

Net income grew -63.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 21.6% a year.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew 0.0% over the last twelve months; the Paper and Allied Products median is 0.8%.

Guidance lowered

Graphic Packaging lowered its 2026 Adjusted EPS outlook on Aug 4, 2026.

Gross margin slipping

Gross margin was 15.5% over the last twelve months, against 21.1% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 6.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 20.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was 4.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Graphic Packaging's return on equity of 6.0% is above the Paper and Allied Products median of 0.3%.

Earnings grew over 5 years

Net income grew 21.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 2.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.7%.

Net margin above the industry

Graphic Packaging's net margin of 2.2% is above the Paper and Allied Products median of 0.2%.

High debt

Debt is 175% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt falling against equity

Debt to equity fell from 256% five years ago to 175%.

Debt not well covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 14.0% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 2.0 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.38 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 1.39; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Graphic Packaging paid dividends worth 4.0% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 4.0% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield in the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Graphic Packaging yields 4.0%.

Dividend stability

Fewer than five years of dividend history.

Covered by earnings

Dividends take 67.0% of net income.

Cash-flow cover

Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.