Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $9.27BP/E 17.1Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Strong22 of 30 checks passed
Sterling Infrastructure passes 22 of the 30 checks behind our score; 6 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 6/6
- Past performance
- 6/6
- Financial health
- 5/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 24.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $303.85 is below our fair value estimate of $404.83.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 43.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 27.5% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 51.1%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
What to watch
P/B above the industry
Sterling Infrastructure's price-to-book of 6.15 is above the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median of 5.11.
No dividend
Sterling Infrastructure has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Sterling Infrastructure's P/E of 17.1 is below its own 5-year median of 21.0.
P/E below the industry
Sterling Infrastructure's P/E of 17.1 is below the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median of 28.1.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Sterling Infrastructure's EV/EBITDA of 10.4 is below its 5-year median of 11.3.
P/B above the industry
Sterling Infrastructure's price-to-book of 6.15 is above the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median of 5.11.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $303.85 is below our fair value estimate of $404.83.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 24.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth6/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 12.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 39.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 75.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 47.0% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 93.1% over the last twelve months; the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median is 5.2%.
Guidance raised
Sterling Infrastructure raised its Full Year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook on Oct 28, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 23.8% over the last twelve months, against 23.1% a year earlier.
Past performance6/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 43.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 27.5% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 51.1%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Sterling Infrastructure's return on equity of 43.3% is above the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median of 14.8%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 47.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 12.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 8.3%.
Net margin above the industry
Sterling Infrastructure's net margin of 12.9% is above the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median of 1.6%.
Financial health5/6
Low debt
Debt is 6.3% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 138% five years ago to 6.3%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 644% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.04 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 5.43; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Sterling Infrastructure has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$404.83
The share price is 25% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.5× | 21.0× | 28.1× | $436.79 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6× | 11.3× | 13.9× | $368.30 | 47% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 12.3% cost of equity | – | – | $108.04 | – |
| Fair value | $404.83 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 21.0
- Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median 28.1
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $366.50M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $87.69M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 40.8%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 95%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.27
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.48
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +17.7% | +12.1% | +15.2% | +14.8% | |
| Gross profit | +34.3% | +27.7% | +26.1% | +35.4% | |
| Operating income | +53.4% | +36.4% | +34.4% | – | |
| Net income | +12.7% | +39.7% | +47.0% | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +13.4% | +39.2% | +44.3% | – | |
| Free cash flow | -12.8% | +31.9% | +32.1% | +90.0% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -9.1% | 17.4% | 30.3% | |
| Return on assets | -3.3% | 4.5% | 12.5% | |
| Current ratio | 1.20 | 1.12 | 1.01 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.05 | 1.38 | 0.26 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | -3.41× | 2.36× | -0.21× | |
| Inventory turnover | 207.6× | – | – | |
| Capex to revenue | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | |
| Diluted shares | 23M | 28M | 31M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Sterling Infrastructure generated $1.79B from operations and spent $475.00M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 70% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 11.7% | 1.07× | 2.43× | 30.3% |
| FY2024 | 12.2% | 1.12× | 2.66× | 36.1% |
| FY2023 | 7.0% | 1.23× | 2.94× | 25.4% |
| FY2022 | 6.0% | 1.32× | 3.21× | 25.5% |
| FY2021 | 4.4% | 1.29× | 3.49× | 20.0% |
| FY2020 | 3.4% | 1.30× | 3.87× | 17.4% |
| FY2017 | 1.2% | 2.50× | 3.08× | 9.3% |
| FY2016 | -1.3% | 2.43× | 2.79× | -9.1% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$290.15M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$439.99M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year14.5% → 14.4%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$439.99M vs $290.15M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell14.4% → 10.5%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.38 → 1.01
- No dilutionShare count did not rise31M → 31M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year20.14% → 22.98%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.19 → 1.23
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