Orion Group Holdings Inc (ORN) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $311.04MP/E 51.0Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak5 of 30 checks passed
Orion passes 5 of the 30 checks behind our score; 13 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 2/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 1/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Orion's EV/EBITDA of 13.9 is below its 5-year median of 15.4.
P/S below the industry
Orion's price-to-sales of 0.34 is below the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median of 0.77 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 11.0% over the last twelve months; the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median is 5.2%.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 0.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -1.3%.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 43.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $7.77 is above our fair value estimate of $5.41.
Earnings shrank over 5 years
Net income shrank 34.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 4.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Valuation2/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E above the industry
Orion's P/E of 51.8 is above the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median of 28.1.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Orion's EV/EBITDA of 13.9 is below its 5-year median of 15.4.
P/S below the industry
Orion's price-to-sales of 0.34 is below the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median of 0.77 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Trading above fair value
The share price of $7.77 is above our fair value estimate of $5.41.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 43.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 4.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -39.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -34.2% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 11.0% over the last twelve months; the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median is 5.2%.
Guidance unchanged
The latest outlook (full year 2026 Revenue, Apr 29, 2026) was maintained, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 11.8% over the last twelve months, against 13.0% a year earlier.
Past performance1/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings shrank over 5 years
Net income shrank 34.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 0.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -1.3%.
Net margin below the industry
Orion's net margin of 0.6% is below the Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median of 1.6%.
Financial health1/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 2.8% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 1.3 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.37 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.32; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Orion has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$5.41
The share price is 43% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.1× | – | 28.1× | $4.21 | 44% |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6× | 15.4× | 13.9× | $8.35 | 39% |
| Earnings power | 9.8% cost of equity | – | – | $1.77 | 17% |
| Fair value | $5.41 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction Contractors median 28.1
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $5.12M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $1.66M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 31.9%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 61%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.48
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.99
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +7.0% | +4.4% | +3.7% | – | |
| Gross profit | +15.9% | +27.7% | +4.5% | +10.1% | |
| Operating income | +26.8% | – | -11.3% | – | |
| Net income | – | – | -34.2% | – | |
| EPS, diluted | – | – | -38.3% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -1.6% | – | – | |
| Return on assets | -0.8% | 5.0% | 0.6% | |
| Current ratio | 1.66 | 1.30 | 1.36 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.45 | – | – | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 2.64× | 0.64× | 0.22× | |
| Interest coverage | 0.7× | 5.4× | 1.6× | |
| Inventory turnover | – | 469.8× | 338.9× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 2.1% | 4.6% | |
| Diluted shares | 28M | 30M | 40M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Orion generated $67.55M from operations and spent $93.42M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2018 | -18.1% | 1.40× | 2.00× | -50.6% |
| FY2017 | 0.1% | 1.31× | 1.93× | 0.2% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$2.49M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$28.07M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-0.4% → 0.6%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$28.07M vs $2.49M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell5.5% → 1.5%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.41 → 1.36
- No dilutionShare count did not rise35M → 40M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year11.45% → 12.39%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.91 → 2.04
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