PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.52BP/E 10.5Yield 1.34%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid16 of 30 checks passed
PROG passes 16 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 4/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 28.1% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $38.86 is below our fair value estimate of $54.01.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 20.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 24.3% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 30.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
What to watch
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -2.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 3.5 times; we look for at least 5.
P/E above its 5-year median
PROG's P/E of 10.5 is above its own 5-year median of 10.1.
Guidance lowered
PROG lowered its Revised 2026 outlook Other - Total revenues outlook on Jul 29, 2026.
Valuation5/6
P/E above its 5-year median
PROG's P/E of 10.5 is above its own 5-year median of 10.1.
P/E below the industry
PROG's P/E of 10.5 is below the Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing median of 19.8.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
PROG's EV/EBITDA of 5.1 is below its 5-year median of 5.3.
P/B below the industry
PROG's price-to-book of 1.88 is below the Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing median of 2.93.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $38.86 is below our fair value estimate of $54.01.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 28.1% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -2.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 23.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 15.4% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing median is 9.4%.
Guidance lowered
PROG lowered its Revised 2026 outlook Other - Total revenues outlook on Jul 29, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 20.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 24.3% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 30.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
PROG's return on equity of 20.0% is above the Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing median of 12.9%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 5.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 6.6%.
Net margin above the industry
PROG's net margin of 5.5% is above the Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing median of 5.4%.
Financial health1/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 3.5 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term liquidity
The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 3.60; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend4/6
Pays a dividend
PROG paid dividends worth 1.4% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 1.4% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; PROG yields 1.4%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 5 fiscal years.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 14.5% of net income.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 6.9% of free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$54.01
The share price is 28% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.9× | 10.1× | 19.8× | $55.34 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4× | 5.3× | 9.5× | $55.31 | 35% |
| P/B | 2.6× | 2.3× | 2.9× | $53.70 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 11.7% cost of equity | – | – | $47.63 | 15% |
| Fair value | $54.01 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 10.1
- Miscellaneous Equipment Rental and Leasing median 19.8
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $25.59M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $11.23M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 23.2%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 50%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.75
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.36
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2017 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +0.4% | -2.5% | -0.6% | – | |
| Operating income | +6.2% | +3.7% | -5.3% | – | |
| Net income | -25.6% | +14.1% | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | -20.8% | +23.6% | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | +149.5% | +11.8% | -3.7% | – | |
| Dividend per share | +8.3% | – | +25.8% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
9 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2017 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | -4.5% | 21.0% | |
| Return on assets | – | -2.7% | 9.4% | |
| Interest coverage | – | 1453.3× | 4.2× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 2.6% | 0.4% | |
| Diluted shares | – | 68M | 41M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
PROG generated $1.17B from operations and spent $784.32M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 6% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 6.1% | 1.54× | 2.24× | 21.0% |
| FY2024 | 8.2% | 1.60× | 2.42× | 31.8% |
| FY2023 | 5.9% | 1.57× | 2.57× | 23.9% |
| FY2022 | 3.8% | 1.67× | 2.49× | 15.8% |
| FY2021 | 9.1% | 1.82× | 1.76× | 29.2% |
| FY2020 | -2.5% | 1.08× | 1.69× | -4.5% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$146.79M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$334.96M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year13.2% → 9.7%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$334.96M vs $146.79M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose– → –
- No dilutionShare count did not rise44M → 41M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.61 → 1.59
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