Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $3.61BP/E 3.8Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 12, 2026How the score works
Solid18 of 30 checks passed
Par Pacific passes 18 of the 30 checks behind our score; 8 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 44.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $72.03 is below our fair value estimate of $129.28.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 50.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 29.3% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 45.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
What to watch
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 0.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 5.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
P/B above the industry
Par Pacific's price-to-book of 1.55 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.38.
No dividend
Par Pacific has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Par Pacific's P/E of 3.8 is below its own 5-year median of 4.1.
P/E below the industry
Par Pacific's P/E of 3.8 is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 10.3.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Par Pacific's EV/EBITDA of 2.4 is below its 5-year median of 4.5.
P/B above the industry
Par Pacific's price-to-book of 1.55 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.38.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $72.03 is below our fair value estimate of $129.28.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 44.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 0.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 5.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 29.1% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.9%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 22.2% over the last twelve months, against 16.0% a year earlier.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 50.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 29.3% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 45.4%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Par Pacific's return on equity of 50.9% is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 5.5%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 9.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 3.3%.
Net margin above the industry
Par Pacific's net margin of 9.8% is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 4.5%.
Financial health6/6
Low debt
Debt is 21.3% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 288% five years ago to 21.3%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 237% of total debt.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 23.4 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.65 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 4.09; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Par Pacific has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$129.28
The share price is 44% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2× | 4.1× | 10.3× | $137.15 | 44% |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0× | 4.5× | 5.5× | $147.10 | 39% |
| Earnings power | 7.5% cost of equity | – | – | $66.72 | 17% |
| Fair value | $129.28 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 4.1
- Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median 10.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $67.29M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $24.97M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 21.8%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 58%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 1.01
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.48
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -6.4% | +0.6% | +19.0% | +13.7% | |
| Gross profit | +55.1% | +12.7% | +50.2% | +17.1% | |
| Operating income | +1031.2% | +7.2% | – | +24.2% | |
| Net income | – | +0.5% | – | – | |
| EPS, diluted | – | +5.6% | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | – | -9.5% | – | +10.4% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -12.9% | -91.5% | 27.3% | |
| Return on assets | -4.5% | -16.9% | 9.6% | |
| Current ratio | 1.05 | 0.72 | 1.61 | |
| Debt to equity | 1.00 | 2.88 | 0.53 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 26.85× | -2.80× | 0.94× | |
| Interest coverage | -0.7× | -4.5× | 6.5× | |
| Inventory turnover | 7.8× | 5.6× | 5.3× | |
| Capex to revenue | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| Diluted shares | 42M | 53M | 52M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Par Pacific generated $1.59B from operations and spent $793.87M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 57% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 4.9% | 1.95× | 2.84× | 27.3% |
| FY2024 | -0.4% | 2.07× | 3.04× | -2.6% |
| FY2023 | 8.9% | 2.30× | 3.61× | 73.6% |
| FY2022 | 5.0% | 2.50× | 6.43× | 80.0% |
| FY2021 | -1.7% | 2.00× | 9.19× | -31.8% |
| FY2020 | -13.1% | 1.29× | 5.40× | -91.5% |
| FY2019 | 0.8% | 2.60× | 3.59× | 7.0% |
| FY2018 | 1.2% | 2.43× | 2.93× | 8.2% |
| FY2017 | 3.0% | 1.96× | 3.05× | 17.8% |
| FY2016 | -2.5% | 1.83× | 2.87× | -12.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$369.39M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$445.34M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-0.9% → 9.6%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$445.34M vs $369.39M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell28.9% → 20.8%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.62 → 1.61
- No dilutionShare count did not rise57M → 52M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year10.95% → 18.15%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose2.06 → 1.95
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