Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) stock analysis
Close on Nov 13, 2026Market cap $2.19BP/E 17.4Yield 3.76%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 13, 2026How the score works
Mixed9 of 30 checks passed
Northwest Natural passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 4 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 3/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 2/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $52.11 is below our fair value estimate of $54.68.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 8.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 22.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 8.1% a year.
P/E below its 5-year median
Northwest Natural's P/E of 17.4 is below its own 5-year median of 17.8.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 4.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 7.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 5.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
High debt
Debt is 168% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Valuation3/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Northwest Natural's P/E of 17.4 is below its own 5-year median of 17.8.
P/E above the industry
Northwest Natural's P/E of 17.4 is above the Gas Production and Distribution median of 17.4.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Northwest Natural's EV/EBITDA of 10.3 is above its 5-year median of 10.2.
P/B below the industry
Northwest Natural's price-to-book of 1.41 is below the Gas Production and Distribution median of 2.13.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $52.11 is below our fair value estimate of $54.68.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 4.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 7.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 2.9% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 22.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 8.1% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 4.4% over the last twelve months; the Gas Production and Distribution median is 13.6%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (2026 EPS, Nov 4, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance2/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 8.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 7.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 5.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Northwest Natural's return on equity of 8.3% is below the Gas Production and Distribution median of 12.1%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 8.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 9.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 8.2%.
Net margin below the industry
Northwest Natural's net margin of 9.7% is below the Gas Production and Distribution median of 13.1%.
Financial health0/6
High debt
Debt is 168% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 142% five years ago to 168%.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 8.1% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.77 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.70; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
Northwest Natural paid dividends worth 2.8% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 2.8% yield is below the 4.7% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Northwest Natural yields 2.8%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 62.7% of net income.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$54.68
The share price is 5% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.6× | 17.8× | 17.4× | $52.79 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3× | 10.2× | 12.4× | $63.46 | 35% |
| P/B | 1.7× | 1.3× | 2.1× | $63.43 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 7.6% cost of equity | – | – | $33.38 | 15% |
| Fair value | $54.68 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 17.8
- Gas Production and Distribution median 17.4
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $14.83M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $15.89M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 9.2%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 20%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.18
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.28
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2015 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11.8% | +7.5% | +10.8% | – | |
| Operating income | +47.0% | +18.8% | +13.6% | – | |
| Net income | +43.7% | +9.5% | +8.1% | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +36.5% | +2.9% | +2.0% | – | |
| Dividend per share | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | 8.8% | 7.9% | |
| Return on assets | – | 2.1% | 2.0% | |
| Current ratio | – | 0.52 | 0.72 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 1.42 | 1.77 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | 4.86× | 5.75× | |
| Capex to revenue | 20.7% | 35.3% | 36.2% | |
| Diluted shares | 28M | 31M | 41M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Northwest Natural generated $1.06B from operations and spent $2.16B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 84% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 8.8% | 0.23× | 3.99× | 7.9% |
| FY2024 | 6.8% | 0.23× | 3.78× | 5.9% |
| FY2023 | 7.8% | 0.25× | 3.91× | 7.6% |
| FY2022 | 8.3% | 0.24× | 4.18× | 8.2% |
| FY2021 | 9.1% | 0.22× | 4.29× | 8.6% |
| FY2020 | 9.9% | 0.22× | 4.09× | 8.8% |
| FY2019 | 8.3% | 0.22× | 4.10× | 7.6% |
| FY2018 | 9.1% | 0.22× | 4.17× | 8.6% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$113.32M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$269.12M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year1.6% → 2.2%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$269.12M vs $113.32M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell32.1% → 36.8%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.86 → 0.72
- No dilutionShare count did not rise39M → 41M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.24 → 0.25
See a number that looks wrong?