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Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC) stock analysis

NOCNYSESearch, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical SysFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 20, 2026Score 18/3013% below fair value
$550.96+2.35 (+0.43%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $78.27BP/E 17.4Yield 1.63%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value3Growth2Performance5Health4Dividend4

Solid18 of 30 checks passed

Northrop Grumman passes 18 of the 30 checks behind our score; 2 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
3/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
5/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
4/6

What stands out

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $550.96 is below our fair value estimate of $634.06.

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 26.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 32.4% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 13.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 5.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 13.1% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • High debt

    Debt is 81.3% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 4.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -2.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Valuation3/6
  • P/E above its 5-year median

    Northrop Grumman's P/E of 17.4 is above its own 5-year median of 16.7.

  • P/E below the industry

    Northrop Grumman's P/E of 17.4 is below the Measuring, Analyzing, and Controlling Instruments; Photographic, Medical and Optical Goods; Watches and Clocks median of 30.2.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Northrop Grumman's EV/EBITDA of 14.6 is below its 5-year median of 16.6.

  • P/B above the industry

    Northrop Grumman's price-to-book of 4.19 is above the Measuring, Analyzing, and Controlling Instruments; Photographic, Medical and Optical Goods; Watches and Clocks median of 3.38.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $550.96 is below our fair value estimate of $634.06.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 13.1% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 4.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing under 10% a year

    Diluted EPS grew -2.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth accelerating

    Net income grew 12.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.6% a year.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 6.5% over the last twelve months; the Measuring, Analyzing, and Controlling Instruments; Photographic, Medical and Optical Goods; Watches and Clocks median is 8.6%.

  • Guidance raised

    Northrop Grumman raised its 2026 MTM-adjusted EPS outlook on Jul 21, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance5/6
  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 26.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 32.4% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 13.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Northrop Grumman's return on equity of 26.1% is above the Measuring, Analyzing, and Controlling Instruments; Photographic, Medical and Optical Goods; Watches and Clocks median of 9.5%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 5.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 10.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 11.7%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Northrop Grumman's net margin of 10.4% is above the Measuring, Analyzing, and Controlling Instruments; Photographic, Medical and Optical Goods; Watches and Clocks median of 9.4%.

Financial health4/6
  • High debt

    Debt is 81.3% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 142% five years ago to 81.3%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 34.7% of total debt.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.23 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 3.08; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend4/6
  • Pays a dividend

    Northrop Grumman paid dividends worth 1.7% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 1.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Northrop Grumman yields 1.7%.

  • Dividend not cut

    The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 30.2% of net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 35.6% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$634.06

The share price is 13% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$550.96Price$634.06Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E23.4×16.7×30.2×$741.9344%
EV/EBITDA17.2×16.6×17.7×$661.7839%
Earnings power7.4% cost of equity––$281.7517%
Fair value$634.06100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 16.7
  • Measuring, Analyzing, and Controlling Instruments; Photographic, Medical and Optical Goods; Watches and Clocks median 30.2

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$555.21M
Value traded per 1% price move
$364.42M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
18.8%
Volatility (annualized)
29%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.23
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.31

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

–

Operating margin

10.8%−0.3 pts over 5 years

Net margin

10.0%+1.3 pts over 5 years

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