Mosaic Co (MOS) stock analysis

P/E against its history

Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

P/E against the industry

Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

Mosaic's EV/EBITDA of 22.3 is above its 5-year median of 6.2.

P/B below the industry

Mosaic's price-to-book of 0.64 is below the Chemicals and Allied Products median of 2.25.

Price against fair value

We could not estimate a fair value: it needs at least two valuation methods with positive inputs.

Margin of safety

Depends on the fair value estimate.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -14.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -44.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings growth not accelerating

Net income grew -191% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -4.1% a year.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew 0.0% over the last twelve months; the Chemicals and Allied Products median is 3.5%.

Guidance lowered

Mosaic lowered its Full Year 2026 Cash Tax outlook on Nov 3, 2026.

Gross margin slipping

Gross margin was 7.4% over the last twelve months, against 15.6% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was -9.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 12.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was -2.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Mosaic's return on equity of -9.3% is above the Chemicals and Allied Products median of -49.9%.

Earnings shrank over 5 years

Net income shrank 4.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was -9.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 9.3%.

Net margin below the industry

Mosaic's net margin of -9.4% is below the Chemicals and Allied Products median of -9.4%.

High debt

Debt is 47.8% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 47.8% five years ago to 47.8%.

Debt not well covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 9.3% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Interest coverage

Interest expense is not reported separately.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.50 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 1.62; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Mosaic paid dividends worth 3.9% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 3.9% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield in the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Mosaic yields 3.9%.

Dividend was cut

The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

Earnings cover

Needs dividends paid and net income.

Cash-flow cover

Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.