El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $450.41MP/E 12.9Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 12, 2026How the score works
Mixed14 of 30 checks passed
El Pollo Loco passes 14 of the 30 checks behind our score; 9 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 29.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $14.80 is below our fair value estimate of $20.96.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 12.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 1.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 11.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 9.2% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 1.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.08; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
El Pollo Loco's EV/EBITDA of 6.5 is above its 5-year median of 6.3.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
El Pollo Loco's P/E of 12.9 is below its own 5-year median of 13.8.
P/E below the industry
El Pollo Loco's P/E of 12.9 is below the Eating and Drinking Places median of 27.8.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
El Pollo Loco's EV/EBITDA of 6.5 is above its 5-year median of 6.3.
P/B below the industry
El Pollo Loco's price-to-book of 1.39 is below the Eating and Drinking Places median of 3.11.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $14.80 is below our fair value estimate of $20.96.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 29.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 1.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 16.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 32.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 1.6% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 5.1% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.
Guidance raised
El Pollo Loco raised its fiscal year 2026 Estimated effective income tax rate outlook on Aug 6, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 11.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 9.2% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 12.3%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
El Pollo Loco's return on equity of 11.3% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 7.9%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 1.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 6.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.4%.
Net margin above the industry
El Pollo Loco's net margin of 6.8% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 1.9%.
Financial health1/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 17.5 times.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.29 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.08; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
El Pollo Loco has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$20.96
The share price is 29% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.7× | 13.8× | 27.8× | $23.84 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3× | 6.3× | 12.2× | $21.01 | 35% |
| P/B | 2.2× | 1.2× | 3.1× | $23.04 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 8.2% cost of equity | – | – | $11.77 | 15% |
| Fair value | $20.96 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 13.8
- Eating and Drinking Places median 27.8
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $4.58M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $2.37M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 9.5%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 37%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.90
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.65
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.6% | +1.4% | +2.8% | +3.3% | |
| Operating income | +2.1% | +11.8% | +4.6% | -1.5% | |
| Net income | +3.1% | +8.4% | +1.6% | +1.0% | |
| EPS, diluted | +4.7% | +16.4% | +5.8% | +3.8% | |
| Free cash flow | -8.2% | +10.9% | -5.6% | -0.6% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | |
| Return on assets | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | |
| Current ratio | 0.32 | 0.48 | 0.32 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.39 | – | – | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 2.02× | – | – | |
| Interest coverage | – | 10.2× | 9.4× | |
| Capex to revenue | 9.8% | 1.6% | 4.6% | |
| Diluted shares | 39M | 36M | 29M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
El Pollo Loco generated $226.19M from operations and spent $237.19M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 42% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 5.4% | 0.82× | 2.17× | 9.6% |
| FY2024 | 5.4% | 0.80× | 2.32× | 10.0% |
| FY2023 | 5.5% | 0.79× | 2.24× | 9.6% |
| FY2022 | 4.4% | 0.78× | 2.05× | 7.0% |
| FY2021 | 6.4% | 0.75× | 2.07× | 9.9% |
| FY2020 | 5.7% | 0.69× | 2.35× | 9.4% |
| FY2019 | 5.6% | 0.82× | 2.10× | 9.7% |
| FY2018 | -2.1% | 0.98× | 1.65× | -3.3% |
| FY2017 | 2.1% | 0.88× | 1.69× | 3.2% |
| FY2016 | 4.8% | 0.82× | 1.83× | 7.2% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$26.49M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$48.08M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year4.3% → 4.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$48.08M vs $26.49M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.26 → 0.32
- No dilutionShare count did not rise30M → 29M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.80 → 0.83
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