Federal Signal Corp (FSS) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $7.11BP/E 24.2Yield 0.48%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Strong23 of 30 checks passed
Federal Signal passes 23 of the 30 checks behind our score; 1 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 2/6
- Growth
- 5/6
- Past performance
- 6/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 4/6
What stands out
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 20.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 16.8% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 18.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Low debt
Debt is 26.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 20.7% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 25.1% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $116.54 is above our fair value estimate of $93.15.
P/E above the industry
Federal Signal's P/E of 24.2 is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 18.7.
P/B above the industry
Federal Signal's price-to-book of 4.50 is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 1.56.
Valuation2/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Federal Signal's P/E of 24.2 is below its own 5-year median of 27.8.
P/E above the industry
Federal Signal's P/E of 24.2 is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 18.7.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Federal Signal's EV/EBITDA of 14.7 is below its 5-year median of 17.0.
P/B above the industry
Federal Signal's price-to-book of 4.50 is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 1.56.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $116.54 is above our fair value estimate of $93.15.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 25.1% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth5/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 15.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 26.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 25.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 20.7% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 24.0% over the last twelve months; the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median is 5.5%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 29.1% over the last twelve months, against 28.9% a year earlier.
Past performance6/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 20.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 16.8% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 18.6%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Federal Signal's return on equity of 20.5% is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 3.5%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 20.7% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 11.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 9.7%.
Net margin above the industry
Federal Signal's net margin of 11.7% is above the Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median of 1.9%.
Financial health6/6
Low debt
Debt is 26.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 29.9% five years ago to 26.6%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 95.8% of total debt.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 17.9 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.97 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 7.61; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend4/6
Pays a dividend
Federal Signal paid dividends worth 0.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 0.5% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Federal Signal yields 0.5%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 12.1% of net income.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 9.9% of free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$93.15
The share price is 25% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.3× | 27.8× | 18.7× | $112.26 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.8× | 17.0× | 8.5× | $100.58 | 35% |
| P/B | 3.1× | 4.6× | 1.6× | $80.63 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 9.6% cost of equity | – | – | $33.20 | 15% |
| Fair value | $93.15 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 27.8
- Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment median 18.7
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $57.32M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $34.06M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 12.5%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 34%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.03
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.94
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +17.1% | +15.0% | +14.0% | +11.0% | |
| Gross profit | +18.4% | +22.3% | +16.5% | +10.8% | |
| Operating income | +21.1% | +28.5% | +21.0% | +12.7% | |
| Net income | +14.0% | +27.0% | +20.7% | +14.5% | |
| EPS, diluted | +14.6% | +26.7% | +20.8% | +14.9% | |
| Free cash flow | +19.1% | +129.4% | +16.4% | +10.0% | |
| Dividend per share | +16.7% | +15.9% | +11.8% | +8.4% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 11.0% | 14.3% | 19.2% | |
| Return on assets | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.9% | |
| Current ratio | 3.06 | 2.73 | 3.02 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.16 | 0.30 | 0.41 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 0.17× | 0.73× | 1.19× | |
| Interest coverage | 32.0× | 23.1× | 24.2× | |
| Inventory turnover | 5.1× | 4.6× | 3.9× | |
| Capex to revenue | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | |
| Diluted shares | 61M | 62M | 62M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Federal Signal generated $854.00M from operations and spent $403.30M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 47% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 11.3% | 1.05× | 1.62× | 19.2% |
| FY2024 | 11.6% | 1.10× | 1.55× | 19.8% |
| FY2023 | 9.1% | 1.10× | 1.69× | 16.9% |
| FY2022 | 8.4% | 0.99× | 1.76× | 14.6% |
| FY2021 | 8.3% | 0.94× | 1.73× | 13.5% |
| FY2020 | 8.5% | 0.95× | 1.77× | 14.3% |
| FY2019 | 8.9% | 1.12× | 1.87× | 18.5% |
| FY2018 | 8.6% | 1.08× | 2.04× | 19.0% |
| FY2017 | 6.9% | 1.10× | 1.92× | 14.5% |
| FY2016 | 6.2% | 1.08× | 1.64× | 11.0% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$246.60M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$254.70M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year13.3% → 14.0%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$254.70M vs $246.60M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell11.6% → 23.6%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.66 → 3.02
- No dilutionShare count did not rise62M → 62M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year28.63% → 28.95%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.15 → 1.24
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