Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $4.45BP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak4 of 30 checks passed
Firefly Aerospace passes 4 of the 30 checks behind our score; 21 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 2/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 4.69; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 230% over the last twelve months; the Transportation Equipment median is 43.8%.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 22.5% over the last twelve months, against -4.9% a year earlier.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.29 times current liabilities.
What to watch
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -65.1 times; we look for at least 5.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals -1120% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
P/S above the industry
Firefly Aerospace's price-to-sales of 12.14 is above the Transportation Equipment median of 0.94 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Net margin below the industry
Firefly Aerospace's net margin of -88.4% is below the Transportation Equipment median of -65.7%.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/S above the industry
Firefly Aerospace's price-to-sales of 12.14 is above the Transportation Equipment median of 0.94 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Price against fair value
We could not estimate a fair value: it needs at least two valuation methods with positive inputs.
Margin of safety
Depends on the fair value estimate.
Growth2/6
Revenue growth over 3 years
Needs three years of positive revenue.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 230% over the last twelve months; the Transportation Equipment median is 43.8%.
Guidance unchanged
The latest outlook (2026 full-year full-year revenue, Aug 11, 2026) was maintained, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 22.5% over the last twelve months, against -4.9% a year earlier.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin below the industry
Firefly Aerospace's net margin of -88.4% is below the Transportation Equipment median of -65.7%.
Financial health2/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals -1120% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -65.1 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.29 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 4.69; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Firefly Aerospace has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itWe don't publish a fair value for Firefly Aerospace. It needs a US-dollar share price, at least two valuation methods with positive inputs (earnings, EBITDA, book value or sales) and, for companies with several share classes, classes that trade at the same price.
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/S at month end
- Transportation Equipment median 0.9
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $77.76M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $15.33M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 43.7%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 116%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.29
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 3.67
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2022 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +163.0% | – | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
4 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2022 | FY2022 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current ratio | – | – | 4.51 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | 2.12× | |
| Interest coverage | – | – | -16.4× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | – | 20.5% | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 69M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Firefly Aerospace does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont needs revenue, assets and equity
This company does not report all three for consecutive years.
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$298.34M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero-$204.92M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year– → -73.2%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income-$204.92M vs -$298.34M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell30.5% → 15.4%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.01 → 4.51
- No dilutionShare count did not rise13M → 69M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year-18.69% → 19.18%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose– → 0.39
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