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VAALCO Energy Inc (EGY) stock analysis

EGYNYSECrude Petroleum & Natural GasFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 9, 2026Score 8/3013% above fair value
$5.53+0.10 (+1.84%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $581.71MP/E –Yield 4.52%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value0Growth1Performance0Health4Dividend3

Weak8 of 30 checks passed

VAALCO Energy passes 8 of the 30 checks behind our score; 9 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
0/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
0/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
3/6

What stands out

  • No debt

    VAALCO Energy has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Interest well covered

    No meaningful interest expense to cover.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    There is no debt to cover.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 11.8% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.7%.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 13.3% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $5.43 is above our fair value estimate of $4.79.

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -35.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 22.5% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was 1.4%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Valuation0/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

    VAALCO Energy's EV/EBITDA of 3.9 is above its 5-year median of 1.8.

  • P/B above the industry

    VAALCO Energy's price-to-book of 1.70 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.33.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $5.43 is above our fair value estimate of $4.79.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 13.3% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth1/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 0.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 11.8% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 8.7%.

  • Guidance lowered

    VAALCO Energy lowered its Q3 2026 DD&A ($/BOE) NRI outlook on Aug 6, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance0/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -35.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 22.5% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was 1.4%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity below the industry

    VAALCO Energy's return on equity of -35.6% is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 5.5%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was -34.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 13.9%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    VAALCO Energy's net margin of -34.4% is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 3.8%.

Financial health4/6

  • No debt

    VAALCO Energy has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Debt not rising

    With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    There is no debt to cover.

  • Interest well covered

    No meaningful interest expense to cover.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 0.45 times current liabilities.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.80; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6

  • Pays a dividend

    VAALCO Energy paid dividends worth 4.6% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield above Treasuries

    The 4.6% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield in the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; VAALCO Energy yields 4.6%.

  • Dividend stability

    Fewer than five years of dividend history.

  • Earnings cover

    Needs dividends paid and net income.

  • Cash-flow cover

    Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$4.79

The share price is 13% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$5.43Price$4.79Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA3.6×1.8×5.3×$5.0078%
P/B1.3×1.2×1.3×$4.0622%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others8.5% cost of equity––$20.40–
Fair value$4.79100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 6.9
  • Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median 10.4

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$7.91M
Value traded per 1% price move
$4.70M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
16.0%
Volatility (annualized)
46%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.71
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.73

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Operating margin

-5.7%+34.8 pts over 5 years

Net margin

-11.5%+60.2 pts over 5 years

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