Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) stock analysis

P/E above its 5-year median

Covenant Logistics's P/E of 171.6 is above its own 5-year median of 15.6.

P/E above the industry

Covenant Logistics's P/E of 171.6 is above the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 32.7.

EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

Covenant Logistics's EV/EBITDA of 11.2 is above its 5-year median of 6.4.

P/B above the industry

Covenant Logistics's price-to-book of 1.96 is above the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 1.81.

Trading above fair value

The share price of $32.61 is above our fair value estimate of $22.11.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 47.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -1.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -57.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 12.5% over the last twelve months; the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median is 7.6%.

Guidance raised

Covenant Logistics raised its balance of 2026 net capital equipment expenditures outlook on Jul 29, 2026.

Gross margin trend

This company does not report gross profit.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 1.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 14.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was 0.4%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity below the industry

Covenant Logistics's return on equity of 1.3% is below the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 6.3%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 0.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.7%.

Net margin below the industry

Covenant Logistics's net margin of 0.4% is below the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 2.4%.

High debt

Debt is 67.4% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 19.1% five years ago to 67.4%.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 24.7% of total debt.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 0.2 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.15 times current liabilities.

Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

The Altman Z-score is 2.54; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Covenant Logistics paid dividends worth 0.9% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 0.9% yield is below the 4.7% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Covenant Logistics yields 0.9%.

Dividend stability

Fewer than five years of dividend history.

Not covered by earnings

Dividends take 131% of net income, leaving little room.

Cash-flow cover

Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.