Citi Trends Inc (CTRN) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $386.78MP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak8 of 30 checks passed
Citi Trends passes 8 of the 30 checks behind our score; 13 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
No debt
Citi Trends has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 15.6 times.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 3.35; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 109% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $46.38 is above our fair value estimate of $22.17.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 6.6%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 1.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Citi Trends's EV/EBITDA of 12.9 is above its 5-year median of 2.0.
P/B above the industry
Citi Trends's price-to-book of 3.10 is above the Apparel and Accessory Stores median of 1.98.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $46.38 is above our fair value estimate of $22.17.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 109% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 1.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -55.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 11.1% over the last twelve months; the Apparel and Accessory Stores median is 6.1%.
Guidance lowered
Citi Trends lowered its fiscal 2026 remodels outlook on Aug 25, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 39.8% over the last twelve months, against 39.8% a year earlier.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 6.6%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin against the industry
Needs revenue and net income.
Financial health6/6
No debt
Citi Trends has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 15.6 times.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.13 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 3.35; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Citi Trends has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$22.17
The share price is 109% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6× | 2.0× | 7.2× | $20.74 | 78% |
| P/B | 1.8× | 1.7× | 2.0× | $27.18 | 22% |
| Fair value | $22.17 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 3.2
- Apparel and Accessory Stores median 19.2
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $9.38M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $3.32M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 27.9%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 62%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.21
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.77
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +8.9% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +1.8% | |
| Gross profit | +15.1% | +1.4% | +0.8% | +2.0% | |
| Operating income | – | -62.9% | -34.5% | -16.8% | |
| EPS, diluted | – | -55.5% | -23.0% | -4.8% | |
| Free cash flow | – | – | -63.3% | -22.4% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | – | 4.5% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | 1.1% | |
| Current ratio | 2.36 | 1.34 | 1.11 | |
| Interest coverage | 119.1× | 41.2× | 11.3× | |
| Inventory turnover | – | 3.9× | 4.2× | |
| Capex to revenue | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | |
| Diluted shares | 15M | 10M | 8M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Citi Trends generated $114.45M from operations and spent $232.68M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 42% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 0.6% | 1.76× | 4.07× | 4.5% |
| FY2024 | -5.7% | 1.53× | 3.62× | -31.9% |
| FY2023 | -1.6% | 1.41× | 3.28× | -7.4% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$5.21M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$20.95M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-8.3% → 1.1%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$20.95M vs $5.21M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.13 → 1.11
- No dilutionShare count did not rise8M → 8M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year37.45% → 39.59%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.45 → 1.77
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