CSX Corp (CSX) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $95.67BP/E 26.9Yield 1.00%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed9 of 30 checks passed
CSX passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 2/6
- Financial health
- 2/6
- Dividend
- 4/6
What stands out
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 0.9% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 23.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 0.9% a year.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 6.4 times.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 29.8% of total debt.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 38.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $51.90 is above our fair value estimate of $37.48.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -1.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -7.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Valuation0/6
P/E above its 5-year median
CSX's P/E of 26.9 is above its own 5-year median of 18.9.
P/E above the industry
CSX's P/E of 26.9 is above the Industrials median of 23.5.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
CSX's EV/EBITDA of 15.9 is above its 5-year median of 12.1.
P/S above the industry
CSX's price-to-sales of 6.40 is above the Industrials median of 1.27 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Trading above fair value
The share price of $51.90 is above our fair value estimate of $37.48.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 38.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -1.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -7.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 23.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 0.9% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 5.8% over the last twelve months; the Industrials median is 7.9%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance2/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 0.9% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 24.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 25.5%.
Net margin above the industry
CSX's net margin of 24.0% is above the Industrials median of 2.5%.
Financial health2/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 29.8% of total debt.
Interest well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 6.4 times.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.84 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.94; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend4/6
Pays a dividend
CSX paid dividends worth 1.1% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 1.1% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; CSX yields 1.1%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 28.5% of net income.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 31.8% of free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$37.48
The share price is 38% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.2× | 18.9× | 23.5× | $40.93 | 44% |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9× | 12.1× | 13.7× | $40.28 | 39% |
| Earnings power | 8.7% cost of equity | – | – | $21.76 | 17% |
| Fair value | $37.48 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 18.9
- Industrials median 23.5
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $578.35M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $516.32M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 8.9%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 23%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 1.87
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.76
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -3.1% | -1.7% | +5.9% | +1.8% | |
| Operating income | -13.8% | -8.8% | +0.7% | +2.3% | |
| Net income | -16.7% | -11.1% | +0.9% | +3.9% | |
| EPS, diluted | -14.0% | -7.1% | +5.1% | +8.7% | |
| Free cash flow | -37.0% | -20.6% | -8.3% | +7.8% | |
| Dividend per share | +8.3% | +9.1% | +8.2% | +8.3% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on assets | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | |
| Current ratio | 1.22 | 2.20 | 0.81 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | 2.36× | 2.94× | |
| Interest coverage | 5.9× | – | 5.4× | |
| Capex to revenue | 21.7% | 15.4% | 20.6% | |
| Diluted shares | 2.84B | 2.31B | 1.87B |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
CSX generated $26.00B from operations and spent $30.80B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 38% of that went back into the business.
DuPont needs revenue, assets and equity
This company does not report all three for consecutive years.
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$2.89B
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$4.61B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year8.2% → 6.8%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$4.61B vs $2.89B
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell41.9% → 41.6%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.86 → 0.81
- No dilutionShare count did not rise1.94B → 1.87B
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.34 → 0.33
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