ConocoPhillips (COP) stock analysis

P/E above its 5-year median

ConocoPhillips's P/E of 14.5 is above its own 5-year median of 12.3.

P/E above the industry

ConocoPhillips's P/E of 14.5 is above the Petroleum Refining median of 13.9.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

ConocoPhillips's EV/EBITDA of 6.1 is below its 5-year median of 6.1.

P/B below the industry

ConocoPhillips's price-to-book of 2.51 is below the Petroleum Refining median of 2.75.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $137.86 is below our fair value estimate of $148.27.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 7.0% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -9.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew -24.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew 13.3% over the last twelve months; the Petroleum Refining median is 18.4%.

Guidance lowered

ConocoPhillips lowered its Full-year production outlook on Apr 30, 2026.

Gross margin slipping

Gross margin was 62.2% over the last twelve months, against 62.9% a year earlier.

Return on equity over 15%

Return on equity was 17.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 22.5% over five years.

Return on invested capital

Needs operating income and invested capital.

Return on equity below the industry

ConocoPhillips's return on equity of 17.7% is below the Petroleum Refining median of 17.7%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 17.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 18.3%.

Net margin above the industry

ConocoPhillips's net margin of 17.1% is above the Petroleum Refining median of 7.0%.

Low debt

Debt is 35.3% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

Debt falling against equity

Debt to equity fell from 51.5% five years ago to 35.3%.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 99.9% of total debt.

Interest coverage

Interest expense is not reported separately.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.52 times current liabilities.

Low bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 3.10; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

ConocoPhillips paid dividends worth 2.4% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 2.4% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; ConocoPhillips yields 2.4%.

Dividend not cut

The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

Covered by earnings

Dividends take 35.5% of net income.

Cash-flow cover

Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.