Certara, Inc. (CERT) stock analysis
Close on Nov 13, 2026Market cap $1.76BP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 13, 2026How the score works
Weak8 of 30 checks passed
Certara passes 8 of the 30 checks behind our score; 10 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 3/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $11.57 is below our fair value estimate of $14.16.
Low debt
Debt is 29.8% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 27.9% of total debt.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Certara's EV/EBITDA of 23.5 is below its 5-year median of 36.2.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 18.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -6.3% over the last twelve months and averaged -1.3% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 0.5%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 7.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Valuation3/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Certara's EV/EBITDA of 23.5 is below its 5-year median of 36.2.
P/B below the industry
Certara's price-to-book of 1.80 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.05.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $11.57 is below our fair value estimate of $14.16.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 18.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 7.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 12.6% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.
Guidance lowered
Certara lowered its full year 2026 Fully diluted shares outlook on Aug 4, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 61.9% over the last twelve months, against 62.2% a year earlier.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -6.3% over the last twelve months and averaged -1.3% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 0.5%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Certara's return on equity of -6.3% is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -1.1%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was -14.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -3.9%.
Net margin below the industry
Certara's net margin of -14.7% is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.7%.
Financial health4/6
Low debt
Debt is 29.8% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 36.3% five years ago to 29.8%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 27.9% of total debt.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 0.4 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.58 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.74; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Certara has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$14.16
The share price is 18% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 27.3× | 36.2× | 18.2× | $13.50 | 78% |
| P/B | 2.6× | 2.1× | 3.1× | $16.48 | 22% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 12.8% cost of equity | – | – | $4.35 | – |
| Fair value | $14.16 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 27.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $29.81M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $8.04M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 31.4%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 56%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.63
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.54
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +8.7% | +7.7% | +11.5% | – | |
| Gross profit | +11.7% | +8.3% | +12.5% | – | |
| Operating income | – | -13.5% | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | +19.9% | +1.2% | +16.6% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
8 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2018 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | -7.5% | -0.2% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | -0.1% | |
| Current ratio | – | 4.60 | 2.05 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 0.36 | 0.28 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | -1.16× | 1.08× | |
| Interest coverage | – | -1.0× | 1.1× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| Diluted shares | – | 133M | 160M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Certara generated $412.48M from operations and spent $50.35M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 15% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -0.4% | 0.27× | 1.48× | -0.2% |
| FY2024 | -3.1% | 0.25× | 1.49× | -1.1% |
| FY2023 | -15.6% | 0.23× | 1.47× | -5.2% |
| FY2022 | 4.4% | 0.22× | 1.45× | 1.4% |
| FY2021 | -4.6% | 0.21× | 1.49× | -1.4% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$1.60M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$96.33M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-0.8% → -0.1%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$96.33M vs -$1.60M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell18.6% → 18.6%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.13 → 2.05
- No dilutionShare count did not rise160M → 160M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year59.88% → 61.53%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.25 → 0.27
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