nCino, Inc. (NCNO) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $2.37BP/E 74.6Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed10 of 30 checks passed
nCino passes 10 of the 30 checks behind our score; 10 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 2/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 2/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Low debt
Debt is 29.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 13.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 48.5% of total debt.
Guidance raised
nCino raised its fiscal year 2027 ending January 31, 2027 Total revenues outlook on Aug 25, 2026.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 31.3% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $22.39 is above our fair value estimate of $17.06.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 3.4% over the last twelve months and averaged -4.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 3.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Valuation2/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E above the industry
nCino's P/E of 74.6 is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 27.6.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
nCino's EV/EBITDA of 28.4 is below its 5-year median of 124.6.
P/B below the industry
nCino's price-to-book of 2.55 is below the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of 3.32.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $22.39 is above our fair value estimate of $17.06.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 31.3% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 13.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 8.6% over the last twelve months; the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median is 9.6%.
Guidance raised
nCino raised its fiscal year 2027 ending January 31, 2027 Total revenues outlook on Aug 25, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 62.2% over the last twelve months, against 60.0% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 3.4% over the last twelve months and averaged -4.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 3.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
nCino's return on equity of 3.4% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -1.2%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 5.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -11.6%.
Net margin above the industry
nCino's net margin of 5.4% is above the Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median of -4.8%.
Financial health2/6
Low debt
Debt is 29.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 48.5% of total debt.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 2.7 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.85 times current liabilities.
Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone
The Altman Z-score is 2.42; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
nCino has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$17.06
The share price is 31% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.6× | – | 27.6× | $8.27 | 47% |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.0× | 124.6× | 18.8× | $23.79 | 41% |
| P/B | 3.3× | 3.2× | 3.3× | $28.64 | 12% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 13.0% cost of equity | – | – | $4.61 | – |
| Fair value | $17.06 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- EV/EBITDA at month end
- Own 5-year median 125
- Computer Programming, Data Processing, and Other Computer Related Services median 18.8
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $37.86M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $19.00M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 33.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 50%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.38
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.62
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2019 to 2026
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2026
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.0% | +13.4% | +23.8% | – | |
| Gross profit | +10.9% | +14.7% | +25.4% | – | |
| Free cash flow | +54.7% | – | +76.0% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
8 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2019 | FY2021 | FY2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | -13.7% | 0.5% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | 0.3% | |
| Current ratio | – | 3.82 | 1.00 | |
| Interest coverage | – | -327.8× | 0.2× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 2.1% | 1.3% | |
| Diluted shares | – | 88M | 114M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2022 to 2026, five years combined
nCino generated $237.16M from operations and spent $161.73M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 23% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 0.9% | 0.37× | 1.52× | 0.5% |
| FY2025 | -7.0% | 0.37× | 1.38× | -3.5% |
| FY2024 | -8.9% | 0.36× | 1.29× | -4.1% |
| FY2023 | -25.2% | 0.31× | 1.26× | -9.8% |
| FY2022 | -18.1% | 0.29× | 1.25× | -6.6% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2026 against fiscal 2025
- ProfitableNet income above zero$5.18M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$90.07M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-2.8% → 0.3%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$90.07M vs $5.18M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → 13.0%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.20 → 1.00
- No dilutionShare count did not rise115M → 114M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year60.07% → 60.55%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.40 → 0.37
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