Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $26.39BP/E 34.4Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid17 of 30 checks passed
Caseys General Stores passes 17 of the 30 checks behind our score; 3 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 4/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 4/6
What stands out
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 20.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 17.6% over five years.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 18.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 17.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 32.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 18.0% a year.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 96.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $714.11 is above our fair value estimate of $363.36.
High debt
Debt is 59.4% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 5.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Valuation0/6
P/E above its 5-year median
Caseys General Stores's P/E of 34.4 is above its own 5-year median of 26.2.
P/E above the industry
Caseys General Stores's P/E of 34.4 is above the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 12.5.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B above the industry
Caseys General Stores's price-to-book of 6.45 is above the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 2.37.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $714.11 is above our fair value estimate of $363.36.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 96.5% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth4/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 5.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 17.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 32.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 18.0% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 13.8% over the last twelve months; the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median is 1.5%.
Guidance raised
Caseys General Stores raised its fiscal 2027 Depreciation and amortization outlook on Sep 8, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 23.8% over the last twelve months, against 23.8% a year earlier.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 20.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 17.6% over five years.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Caseys General Stores's return on equity of 20.0% is above the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 12.4%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 18.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 4.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 3.3%.
Net margin above the industry
Caseys General Stores's net margin of 4.1% is above the Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median of 2.6%.
Financial health4/6
High debt
Debt is 59.4% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 70.6% five years ago to 59.4%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 57.2% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.02 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 5.83; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend4/6
Pays a dividend
Caseys General Stores paid dividends worth 0.3% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 0.3% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Caseys General Stores yields 0.3%.
Dividend not cut
The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 7 fiscal years.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 11.1% of net income.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 13.2% of free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$363.36
The share price is 97% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.4× | 26.2× | 12.5× | $403.09 | 62% |
| P/B | 3.3× | 4.2× | 2.4× | $364.20 | 15% |
| Earnings power | 7.6% cost of equity | – | – | $256.86 | 23% |
| Fair value | $363.36 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 26.2
- Retail-auto dealers & gasoline stations median 12.5
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $317.16M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $216.34M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 28.5%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 38%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.78
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.54
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2012 to 2026
Gross margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2026
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +10.2% | +5.2% | +15.1% | +9.4% | |
| Gross profit | +15.2% | +12.0% | +12.9% | +10.4% | |
| Net income | +30.7% | +16.9% | +18.0% | +12.2% | |
| EPS, diluted | +30.9% | +17.2% | +18.0% | +12.8% | |
| Free cash flow | +23.4% | +21.2% | +14.7% | +24.7% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2017 | FY2021 | FY2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 15.6% | 17.5% | 19.2% | |
| Return on assets | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | |
| Current ratio | 0.82 | 1.18 | 1.01 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.62 | |
| Inventory turnover | 28.7× | 24.3× | 25.5× | |
| Capex to revenue | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | |
| Diluted shares | 40M | 37M | 37M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2022 to 2026, five years combined
Caseys General Stores generated $5.03B from operations and spent $3.12B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 80% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 4.1% | 2.05× | 2.30× | 19.2% |
| FY2025 | 3.4% | 2.19× | 2.23× | 16.8% |
| FY2024 | 3.4% | 2.42× | 2.17× | 17.7% |
| FY2023 | 3.0% | 2.64× | 2.34× | 18.2% |
| FY2022 | 2.6% | 2.60× | 2.39× | 16.3% |
| FY2021 | 3.6% | 2.07× | 2.35× | 17.5% |
| FY2020 | 2.9% | 2.39× | 2.51× | 17.3% |
| FY2019 | 2.2% | 2.60× | 2.69× | 15.2% |
| FY2018 | 3.8% | 2.59× | 2.64× | 25.8% |
| FY2017 | 2.4% | 2.61× | 2.53× | 15.6% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2026 against fiscal 2025
- ProfitableNet income above zero$714.45M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$1.38B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year8.6% → 8.7%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$1.38B vs $714.45M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell29.4% → 26.1%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.92 → 1.01
- No dilutionShare count did not rise37M → 37M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year23.54% → 24.61%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose2.51 → 2.14
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