Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $875.90MP/E 12.5Yield 4.40%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed14 of 30 checks passed
Bloomin' Brands passes 14 of the 30 checks behind our score; 7 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 6/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 55.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $10.23 is below our fair value estimate of $22.99.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 18.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 53.3% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 33.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
What to watch
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -0.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -54.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.99; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 1.1% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.
Valuation6/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Bloomin' Brands's P/E of 12.5 is below its own 5-year median of 23.5.
P/E below the industry
Bloomin' Brands's P/E of 12.5 is below the Eating and Drinking Places median of 28.5.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Bloomin' Brands's EV/EBITDA of 2.8 is below its 5-year median of 3.8.
P/B below the industry
Bloomin' Brands's price-to-book of 2.03 is below the Eating and Drinking Places median of 3.13.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $10.23 is below our fair value estimate of $22.99.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 55.5% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -0.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -54.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 1.1% over the last twelve months; the Eating and Drinking Places median is 5.9%.
Guidance raised
Bloomin' Brands raised its Fiscal 2026 Diluted earnings per share outlook on Aug 5, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 70.1% over the last twelve months, against 70.6% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 18.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 53.3% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 33.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Bloomin' Brands's return on equity of 18.4% is above the Eating and Drinking Places median of 7.9%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 1.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 2.1%.
Net margin below the industry
Bloomin' Brands's net margin of 1.8% is below the Eating and Drinking Places median of 1.9%.
Financial health4/6
No debt
Bloomin' Brands has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.29 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.99; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Bloomin' Brands has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$22.99
The share price is 55% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.0× | 23.5× | 28.5× | $21.31 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0× | 3.8× | 12.3× | $27.45 | 35% |
| P/B | 4.3× | 5.5× | 3.1× | $21.78 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 11.2% cost of equity | – | – | $17.85 | 15% |
| Fair value | $22.99 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 23.5
- Eating and Drinking Places median 28.5
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $26.38M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $7.10M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 24.8%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 80%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.70
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.27
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +0.1% | -0.4% | +4.5% | -1.0% | |
| Gross profit | -0.9% | +0.1% | +4.9% | -0.6% | |
| Operating income | -73.4% | -50.5% | – | -16.7% | |
| Net income | – | -56.8% | – | -24.0% | |
| EPS, diluted | – | -54.0% | – | – | |
| Free cash flow | +1208.6% | -21.2% | +13.7% | -6.3% | |
| Dividend per share | -53.1% | -7.0% | +17.6% | +6.5% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 13.3% | -181.9% | 3.5% | |
| Return on assets | 1.4% | -4.6% | 0.3% | |
| Current ratio | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.31 | |
| Debt to equity | 5.96 | – | – | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 3.00× | – | – | |
| Inventory turnover | 18.6× | 13.2× | 18.1× | |
| Capex to revenue | 6.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | |
| Diluted shares | 114M | 87M | 85M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Bloomin' Brands generated $1.83B from operations and spent $1.70B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 59% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 0.2% | 1.21× | 13.98× | 3.5% |
| FY2024 | -3.2% | 1.16× | 12.50× | -47.0% |
| FY2023 | 5.9% | 1.24× | 9.91× | 72.7% |
| FY2022 | 2.5% | 1.21× | 13.56× | 41.8% |
| FY2021 | 5.2% | 1.24× | 30.17× | 195.4% |
| FY2020 | -5.0% | 0.91× | 39.86× | -181.9% |
| FY2019 | 3.2% | 1.37× | 28.03× | 120.9% |
| FY2018 | 2.6% | 1.64× | 43.31× | 184.5% |
| FY2017 | 2.4% | 1.62× | 20.57× | 80.1% |
| FY2016 | 0.9% | 1.50× | 9.60× | 13.3% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$8.24M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$276.69M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-3.7% → 0.2%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$276.69M vs $8.24M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.34 → 0.31
- No dilutionShare count did not rise86M → 85M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year70.94% → 70.24%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.15 → 1.17
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