BALL Corp (BALL) stock analysis

P/E above its 5-year median

BALL's P/E of 18.6 is above its own 5-year median of 16.7.

P/E below the industry

BALL's P/E of 18.6 is below the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median of 22.3.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

BALL's EV/EBITDA of 11.4 is below its 5-year median of 12.7.

P/B above the industry

BALL's price-to-book of 3.03 is above the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median of 2.80.

Trading above fair value

The share price of $65.81 is above our fair value estimate of $64.71.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 1.7% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -0.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing 10%+ a year

Diluted EPS grew 13.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 15.6% over the last twelve months; the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median is 10.2%.

Guidance issued

The latest outlook (2026 free cash flow, Nov 3, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.

Gross margin improving

Gross margin was 18.6% over the last twelve months, against 18.4% a year earlier.

Return on equity

Needs positive equity and five years of results.

Return on invested capital

Needs operating income and invested capital.

Return on equity against the industry

Needs positive equity.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin against its history

Needs five years of revenue and net income.

Net margin against the industry

Needs revenue and net income.

High debt

Debt is 126% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt falling against equity

Debt to equity fell from 238% five years ago to 126%.

Debt not well covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 19.8% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Interest coverage

Interest expense is not reported separately.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 1.07 times current liabilities.

Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

The Altman Z-score is 2.34; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

BALL paid dividends worth 1.2% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 1.2% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; BALL yields 1.2%.

Dividend not cut

The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

Earnings cover

Needs dividends paid and net income.

Covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 26.0% of free cash flow.