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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) stock analysis

AMBPNYSEMetal CansFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q2 FY2026, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026Last filing: 20-F on Mar 5, 2026Score 4/30
$4.61−0.08 (-1.71%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $2.76BP/E –Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value0Growth2Performance1Health1Dividend0

Weak4 of 30 checks passed

Ardagh Metal Packaging passes 4 of the 30 checks behind our score; 19 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
0/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
1/6
Financial health
1/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Guidance raised

    Ardagh Metal Packaging raised its full–year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook on Jul 23, 2026.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 12.0% over the last twelve months; the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median is 10.2%.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 0.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -0.2%.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.06 times current liabilities.

What to watch

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was 6.7%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Earnings shrank over 5 years

    Net income shrank 37.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 5.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 10.3% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Valuation0/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA against its history

    Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

  • P/B against the industry

    Needs positive book value.

  • Price against fair value

    We could not estimate a fair value: it needs at least two valuation methods with positive inputs.

  • Margin of safety

    Depends on the fair value estimate.

Growth2/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 5.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 12.0% over the last twelve months; the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median is 10.2%.

  • Guidance raised

    Ardagh Metal Packaging raised its full–year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook on Jul 23, 2026.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 12.4% over the last twelve months, against 12.8% a year earlier.

Past performance1/6

  • Return on equity

    Needs positive equity and five years of results.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was 6.7%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity against the industry

    Needs positive equity.

  • Earnings shrank over 5 years

    Net income shrank 37.0% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 0.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -0.2%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Ardagh Metal Packaging's net margin of 0.2% is below the Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery and Transportation Equipment median of 4.5%.

Financial health1/6

  • Debt level

    Needs debt and equity figures.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 10.3% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.06 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z)

    Needs market value, working capital and retained earnings.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Ardagh Metal Packaging has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

We don't publish a fair value for Ardagh Metal Packaging. It needs a US-dollar share price, at least two valuation methods with positive inputs (earnings, EBITDA, book value or sales) and, for companies with several share classes, classes that trade at the same price.

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$9.09M
Value traded per 1% price move
$5.84M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
16.4%
Volatility (annualized)
34%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.07
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.97

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2025

Gross margin

12.4%−3.5 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

4.4%−1.6 pts over 5 years

Net margin

0.2%−3.0 pts over 5 years

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