Ardelyx, Inc. (ARDX) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $779.96MP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed9 of 30 checks passed
Ardelyx passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 15 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 2/6
- Growth
- 3/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 58.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $3.13 is below our fair value estimate of $7.59.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 98.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 16.8% over the last twelve months; the Drugs median is 8.0%.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -38.6% over the last twelve months and averaged -67.0% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -1.6 times; we look for at least 5.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is -0.11; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Guidance lowered
Ardelyx lowered its Full-year 2026 revenue guidance for XPHOZAH outlook on Aug 6, 2026.
Valuation2/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B above the industry
Ardelyx's price-to-book of 5.23 is above the Drugs median of 2.29.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $3.13 is below our fair value estimate of $7.59.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 58.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth3/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 98.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 16.8% over the last twelve months; the Drugs median is 8.0%.
Guidance lowered
Ardelyx lowered its Full-year 2026 revenue guidance for XPHOZAH outlook on Aug 6, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 94.4% over the last twelve months, against 84.8% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -38.6% over the last twelve months and averaged -67.0% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Ardelyx's return on equity of -38.6% is above the Drugs median of -58.9%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was -12.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -355%.
Net margin above the industry
Ardelyx's net margin of -12.4% is above the Drugs median of -53.0%.
Financial health1/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense -1.6 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 3.34 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is -0.11; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Ardelyx has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$7.59
The share price is 59% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 4.9× | 7.5× | 2.3× | $2.93 | 50% |
| P/S | 6.8× | 8.7× | 4.8× | $12.25 | 50% |
| Fair value | $7.59 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/B at month end
- Own 5-year median 7.5
- Drugs median 2.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $15.34M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $7.60M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 25.1%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 59%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.83
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.95
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +22.1% | +98.4% | +121.9% | +32.7% | |
| Gross profit | +29.9% | +97.1% | +118.3% | +31.4% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -74.4% | -60.3% | -36.2% | |
| Return on assets | -68.1% | -40.9% | -13.1% | |
| Current ratio | 10.62 | 6.85 | 4.31 | |
| Interest coverage | – | -17.8× | -2.0× | |
| Inventory turnover | – | – | 0.4× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 4.3% | 0.4% | |
| Diluted shares | 40M | 90M | 241M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Ardelyx generated $399.60M from operations and spent $4.77M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -15.1% | 0.87× | 2.76× | -36.2% |
| FY2024 | -11.7% | 0.91× | 2.16× | -23.0% |
| FY2023 | -53.1% | 0.51× | 1.84× | -49.8% |
| FY2022 | -128.9% | 0.31× | 1.88× | -74.3% |
| FY2021 | -1566.5% | 0.06× | 1.68× | -151.6% |
| FY2020 | -1245.7% | 0.03× | 1.48× | -60.3% |
| FY2019 | -1797.8% | 0.02× | 1.46× | -62.8% |
| FY2018 | -3502.0% | 0.02× | 1.34× | -71.6% |
| FY2017 | -153.2% | 0.23× | 1.12× | -38.7% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$61.60M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero-$42.48M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-13.2% → -14.1%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income-$42.48M vs -$61.60M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose4.58 → 4.31
- No dilutionShare count did not rise235M → 241M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year84.85% → 90.29%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.12 → 0.93
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