Alcoa Corp (AA) stock analysis

P/E against its history

Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

P/E below the industry

Alcoa's P/E of 7.1 is below the Primary Metal Industries median of 17.6.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

Alcoa's EV/EBITDA of 4.6 is below its 5-year median of 7.1.

P/S below the industry

Alcoa's price-to-sales of 0.76 is below the Primary Metal Industries median of 0.76 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

Trading below fair value

The share price of $41.04 is below our fair value estimate of $89.34.

Margin of safety over 20%

The price is 54.1% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew 1.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growth over 3 years

Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew 11.2% over the last twelve months; the Primary Metal Industries median is 14.2%.

Guidance raised

Alcoa raised its 2026 Aluminum segment shipment outlook on Oct 15, 2026.

Gross margin improving

Gross margin was 21.9% over the last twelve months, against 18.4% a year earlier.

Return on equity

Needs positive equity and five years of results.

Return on invested capital

Needs operating income and invested capital.

Return on equity against the industry

Needs positive equity.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin above its 5-year average

Net margin was 10.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 1.2%.

Net margin above the industry

Alcoa's net margin of 10.7% is above the Primary Metal Industries median of 3.9%.

Debt level

Needs debt and equity figures.

Debt trend

Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 33.4% of total debt.

Interest coverage

Interest expense is not reported separately.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 2.31 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 1.61; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Alcoa paid dividends worth 0.7% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 0.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Alcoa yields 0.7%.

Dividend not cut

The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 5 fiscal years.

Covered by earnings

Dividends take 6.9% of net income.

Covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 11.9% of free cash flow.