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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTOEF) stock analysis

ZTOEFOTCTrucking & Courier Services (No Air)Also trades as ZTO
Financials through fiscal 2025, year ended Dec 31, 2025Last filing: 20-F on Apr 17, 2026Score 11/30
$17.00+0.00 (0.00%)

Close on Oct 19, 2026Market cap $27.05BP/E 10.1Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 3, 2026How the score works

Value0Growth3Performance4Health4Dividend0

Mixed11 of 30 checks passed

ZTO Express (Cayman) passes 11 of the 30 checks behind our score; 13 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
0/6
Growth
3/6
Past performance
4/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 17.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Low debt

    Debt is 16.5% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 16.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 11.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 14.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 13.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 3.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 16.1% a year.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 25.0% over the last twelve months, against 31.0% a year earlier.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 18.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 19.2%.

Valuation0/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA against its history

    Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

  • P/B against the industry

    Needs positive book value.

  • Price against fair value

    We could not estimate a fair value: it needs at least two valuation methods with positive inputs.

  • Margin of safety

    Depends on the fair value estimate.

Growth3/6

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 11.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 10.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew 3.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 16.1% a year.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 10.9% over the last twelve months; the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median is 6.5%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 25.0% over the last twelve months, against 31.0% a year earlier.

Past performance4/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 14.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 13.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 17.2%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    ZTO Express (Cayman)'s return on equity of 14.1% is above the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 3.4%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 16.1% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 18.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 19.2%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    ZTO Express (Cayman)'s net margin of 18.5% is above the Trucking and Courier Services, except Air median of 2.1%.

Financial health4/6

  • Low debt

    Debt is 16.5% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt rising against equity

    Debt to equity rose from 2.9% five years ago to 16.5%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 109% of total debt.

  • Interest well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 42.1 times.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.49 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z)

    Needs market value, working capital and retained earnings.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    ZTO Express (Cayman) has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

We don't publish a fair value for ZTO Express (Cayman). It needs a US-dollar share price, at least two valuation methods with positive inputs (earnings, EBITDA, book value or sales) and, for companies with several share classes, classes that trade at the same price.

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$44.87M
Value traded per 1% price move
$43.78M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
12.7%
Volatility (annualized)
24%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.18
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.53

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2013 to 2025

Gross margin

25.0%+1.8 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

21.3%+2.5 pts over 5 years

Net margin

18.5%+1.4 pts over 5 years

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