Hercules Capital, Inc. (HCXY) stock analysis

HCXYNYSEFiscal year ends December 31Also trades as HTGC

Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 29, 2026Score 12/3038% below fair value

$24.33+0.13 (+0.54%)

Close on Nov 3, 2026Market cap $4.55BP/E 13.2Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 3, 2026How the score works

Mixed12 of 30 checks passed

Hercules Capital passes 12 of the 30 checks behind our score; 15 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation: 5/6
Growth: 2/6
Past performance: 2/6
Financial health: 0/6
Dividend: 3/6

What stands out

Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 37.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $16.41 is below our fair value estimate of $26.39.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 8.4% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 32.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.

What to watch

Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 15.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 14.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.73; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Not covered by earnings
Dividends take 95.0% of net income, leaving little room.

Valuation5/6

P/E below its 5-year median
Hercules Capital's P/E of 8.9 is below its own 5-year median of 9.9.
P/E below the industry
Hercules Capital's P/E of 8.9 is below the US market median of 19.6.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B below the industry
Hercules Capital's price-to-book of 1.32 is below the US market median of 1.93.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $16.41 is below our fair value estimate of $26.39.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 37.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6

Revenue growth over 3 years
Needs three years of positive revenue.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 32.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 15.1% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 8.4% a year.
Growth against the industry
Needs revenue for this year and last.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance2/6

Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 15.8% over the last twelve months and averaged 14.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Hercules Capital's return on equity of 15.8% is above the US market median of 3.2%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 8.4% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin against the industry
Needs revenue and net income.

Financial health0/6

Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term liquidity
The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.73; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6

Pays a dividend
Hercules Capital paid dividends worth 11.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield above Treasuries
The 11.5% yield is above the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield in the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.9% or more; Hercules Capital yields 11.5%.
Dividend stability
Fewer than five years of dividend history.
Not covered by earnings
Dividends take 95.0% of net income, leaving little room.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$26.39

The share price is 38% below this estimate.

20%+ below

Near fair value

20%+ above

$16.41Price$26.39Fair value

Method	Multiple used	Own 5Y median	Industry median	Value per share	Weight
P/E	15.0×	9.9×	19.6×	$27.63	80%
P/B	1.7×	1.5×	1.9×	$21.42	20%
Fair value				$26.39	100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

P/E at month end
Own 5-year median 9.9
US market median 19.6

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day: $19.37M
Value traded per 1% price move: $25.17M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month: 19.0%
Volatility (annualized): 24%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year: -0.54
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y): 0.85

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

Margins need revenue and profit figures

This company does not report the lines needed to calculate margins.

Per year	1 year	3 years	5 years	10 years	Five-year pace
Net income	+29.2%	+49.3%	+8.4%	–
EPS, diluted	+14.9%	+32.8%	-1.6%	–

Measure	FY2016	FY2020	FY2025
Return on equity	–	18.7%	16.2%
Return on assets	–	–	8.1%
Diluted shares	74M	112M	189M

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