Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK.PA) stock analysis
Close on Nov 3, 2026Market cap $2.65BP/E 9.9Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 3, 2026How the score works
Mixed9 of 30 checks passed
Green Brick Partners passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 8 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 1/6
- Growth
- 0/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 5/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
No debt
Green Brick Partners has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 22.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 0.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $61.69 is above our fair value estimate of $61.43.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 14.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 24.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 5.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Valuation1/6
P/E above its 5-year median
Green Brick Partners's P/E of 9.9 is above its own 5-year median of 8.4.
P/E below the industry
Green Brick Partners's P/E of 9.9 is below the Operative Builders median of 13.9.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Green Brick Partners's EV/EBITDA of 6.8 is above its 5-year median of 5.6.
P/B above the industry
Green Brick Partners's price-to-book of 1.31 is above the Operative Builders median of 1.15.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $61.69 is above our fair value estimate of $61.43.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 0.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth0/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 5.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 5.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -19.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.5% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -7.3% over the last twelve months; the Operative Builders median is -7.3%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 29.2% over the last twelve months, against 32.4% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 14.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 24.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Green Brick Partners's return on equity of 14.3% is above the Operative Builders median of 11.7%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 22.5% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 14.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 16.1%.
Net margin above the industry
Green Brick Partners's net margin of 14.2% is above the Operative Builders median of 4.3%.
Financial health5/6
No debt
Green Brick Partners has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term liquidity
The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 4.36; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Green Brick Partners has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$61.43
The share price is 0% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.1× | 8.4× | 13.9× | $69.17 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1× | 5.6× | 8.7× | $65.14 | 35% |
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.7× | 1.1× | $65.74 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 11.6% cost of equity | – | – | $29.30 | 15% |
| Fair value | $61.43 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 8.4
- Operative Builders median 13.9
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $22.63M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $14.74M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 18.6%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 34%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.27
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.34
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -1.0% | +5.1% | +15.9% | +21.5% | |
| Gross profit | -8.9% | +7.0% | +22.3% | +26.3% | |
| Net income | -17.9% | +2.4% | +22.5% | +35.2% | |
| EPS, diluted | -16.3% | +5.5% | +25.8% | +34.0% | |
| Free cash flow | +867.4% | +33.0% | +45.3% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 6.4% | 19.5% | 18.0% | |
| Return on assets | 4.7% | 12.2% | 13.1% | |
| Capex to revenue | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| Diluted shares | 49M | 51M | 44M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Green Brick Partners generated $635.56M from operations and spent $311.88M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 7% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 15.4% | 0.85× | 1.37× | 18.0% |
| FY2024 | 18.5% | 0.99× | 1.42× | 26.1% |
| FY2023 | 16.3% | 0.98× | 1.51× | 24.1% |
| FY2022 | 16.6% | 1.14× | 1.59× | 30.1% |
| FY2021 | 13.6% | 1.16× | 1.59× | 25.1% |
| FY2020 | 11.6% | 1.05× | 1.60× | 19.5% |
| FY2019 | 7.4% | 0.95× | 1.67× | 11.8% |
| FY2018 | 8.3% | 0.89× | 1.58× | 11.7% |
| FY2017 | 3.3% | 0.80× | 1.44× | 3.7% |
| FY2016 | 6.1% | 0.77× | 1.36× | 6.4% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$313.23M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$213.24M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year20.1% → 13.9%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$213.24M vs $313.23M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose– → –
- No dilutionShare count did not rise45M → 44M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year34.13% → 31.41%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose1.08 → 0.91
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