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Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR.PA) stock analysis

FOUR.PANYSEServices-Business Services, NECFiscal year ends December 31Also trades as FOUR
Financials through Q2 FY2026, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Aug 6, 2026Score 8/3057% below fair value
$54.12−0.69 (-1.25%)

Close on Nov 3, 2026Market cap $4.27BP/E –Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 3, 2026How the score works

Value3Growth3Performance1Health1Dividend0

Weak8 of 30 checks passed

Shift4 Payments passes 8 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
3/6
Growth
3/6
Past performance
1/6
Financial health
1/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 56.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $41.49 is below our fair value estimate of $96.30.

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 28.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • P/B below the industry

    Shift4 Payments's price-to-book of 2.02 is below the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 2.56.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 6.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 14.1% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was 7.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • High debt

    Debt is 279% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 1.5 times; we look for at least 5.

Valuation3/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA against its history

    Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

  • P/B below the industry

    Shift4 Payments's price-to-book of 2.02 is below the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 2.56.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $41.49 is below our fair value estimate of $96.30.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 56.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth3/6

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 28.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 32.4% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Business Services median is 9.7%.

  • Guidance lowered

    Shift4 Payments lowered its FY 2026 Gross Revenue Less Network Fees outlook on Aug 6, 2026.

  • Gross margin improving

    Gross margin was 35.9% over the last twelve months, against 30.5% a year earlier.

Past performance1/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 6.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 14.1% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was 7.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Shift4 Payments's return on equity of 6.6% is above the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 5.8%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 2.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 2.7%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Shift4 Payments's net margin of 2.2% is below the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 4.1%.

Financial health1/6

  • High debt

    Debt is 279% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt rising against equity

    Debt to equity rose from 219% five years ago to 279%.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 13.1% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 1.5 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.21 times current liabilities.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.92; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Shift4 Payments has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$96.30

The share price is 57% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$41.49Price$96.30Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA15.6×–15.6×$129.5758%
P/B2.6×–2.6×$52.3717%
Earnings power12.8% cost of equity––$47.9725%
Fair value$96.30100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/B at month end
  • Miscellaneous Business Services median 2.6

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$74.84M
Value traded per 1% price move
$28.38M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
24.4%
Volatility (annualized)
65%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.68
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.56

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2025

Gross margin

34.2%+11.0 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

8.4%+15.9 pts over 5 years

Net margin

2.8%+5.2 pts over 5 years

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