MGP Ingredients Inc (CASK) stock analysis

P/E against its history

Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

P/E against the industry

Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

EV/EBITDA against its history

Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

P/B below the industry

MGP Ingredients's price-to-book of 0.63 is below the Wholesale Trade-non-durable Goods median of 1.71.

Trading below fair value

The share price of $17.52 is below our fair value estimate of $43.03.

Margin of safety over 20%

The price is 59.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew -11.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growth over 3 years

Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing slower than the industry

Revenue grew -15.9% over the last twelve months; the Wholesale Trade-non-durable Goods median is 3.9%.

Guidance lowered

MGP Ingredients lowered its full year 2026 effective tax rate outlook on Jul 29, 2026.

Gross margin slipping

Gross margin was 34.7% over the last twelve months, against 39.0% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was -34.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 7.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was -21.6%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity below the industry

MGP Ingredients's return on equity of -34.5% is below the Wholesale Trade-non-durable Goods median of -6.0%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was -51.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.2%.

Net margin below the industry

MGP Ingredients's net margin of -51.4% is below the Wholesale Trade-non-durable Goods median of -0.1%.

High debt

Debt is 57.2% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 15.2% five years ago to 57.2%.

Debt not well covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 5.9% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Interest coverage

Interest expense is not reported separately.

Short-term assets cover short-term debts

Current assets are 6.91 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 1.04; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

MGP Ingredients paid dividends worth 2.7% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 2.7% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.9% or more; MGP Ingredients yields 2.7%.

Dividend was cut

The dividend per share fell by more than 10% at least once in the last 10 fiscal years.

Earnings cover

Needs dividends paid and net income.

Not covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 1970% of free cash flow.