Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAERW) stock analysis
Close on Oct 30, 2026Market cap $24.82MP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Oct 30, 2026How the score works
Weak4 of 30 checks passed
Bridger Aerospace passes 4 of the 30 checks behind our score; 20 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 1/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 1/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 38.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.
P/S below the industry
Bridger Aerospace's price-to-sales of 0.22 is below the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 1.70 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was -10.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -54.8%.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.73 times current liabilities.
What to watch
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals -1.6% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is -1.52; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -8.7% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Business Services median is 9.7%.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 38.1% over the last twelve months, against 41.3% a year earlier.
Valuation1/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/S below the industry
Bridger Aerospace's price-to-sales of 0.22 is below the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 1.70 (book value is negative, so we use sales).
Price against fair value
We could not estimate a fair value: it needs at least two valuation methods with positive inputs.
Margin of safety
Depends on the fair value estimate.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 38.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -8.7% over the last twelve months; the Miscellaneous Business Services median is 9.7%.
Guidance unchanged
The latest outlook (full year 2026 Revenue, Aug 6, 2026) was maintained, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 38.1% over the last twelve months, against 41.3% a year earlier.
Past performance1/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was -10.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -54.8%.
Net margin below the industry
Bridger Aerospace's net margin of -10.8% is below the Miscellaneous Business Services median of 3.4%.
Financial health1/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals -1.6% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.73 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is -1.52; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Bridger Aerospace has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itWe don't publish a fair value for Bridger Aerospace. It needs a US-dollar share price, at least two valuation methods with positive inputs (earnings, EBITDA, book value or sales) and, for companies with several share classes, classes that trade at the same price.
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- EV/EBITDA at month end
- Miscellaneous Business Services median 15.4
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
High risk
- Average value traded per day
- $469.64K
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $101.00K
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 44.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 80%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.98
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.60
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2021 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +24.6% | +38.3% | – | – | |
| Gross profit | +25.6% | +60.5% | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
5 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2021 | FY2021 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | – | -1.2% | |
| Return on assets | – | – | 1.3% | |
| Current ratio | – | – | 2.43 | |
| Debt to equity | – | – | -0.62 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | – | |
| Interest coverage | – | – | – | |
| Capex to revenue | – | – | 65.9% | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 54M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Bridger Aerospace does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 3.4% | 0.40× | -0.93× | -1.2% |
| FY2024 | -15.8% | 0.35× | -0.86× | 4.8% |
| FY2023 | -116.0% | 0.23× | -0.78× | 20.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$4.14M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$16.73M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year-5.7% → 1.4%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$16.73M vs $4.14M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell69.6% → 64.3%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.73 → 2.43
- No dilutionShare count did not rise51M → 54M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year41.72% → 42.08%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.36 → 0.42