Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGLN) stock analysis
Close on Nov 6, 2026Market cap $5.17BP/E 1.2Yield 33.00%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 6, 2026How the score works
Solid16 of 30 checks passed
Arch Capital passes 16 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 6/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 5/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 78.7% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $15.15 is below our fair value estimate of $70.98.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 18.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 19.5% over five years.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 25.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew 6.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 25.6% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -3.9% over the last twelve months; the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median is 5.0%.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 23.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 23.6%.
Valuation6/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Arch Capital's P/E of 1.2 is below its own 5-year median of 1.8.
P/E below the industry
Arch Capital's P/E of 1.2 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 10.9.
P/S below the industry
Arch Capital's price-to-sales of 0.28 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 1.22.
P/B below the industry
Arch Capital's price-to-book of 0.22 is below the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 1.53.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $15.15 is below our fair value estimate of $70.98.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 78.7% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 27.5% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 45.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew 6.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 25.6% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew -3.9% over the last twelve months; the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median is 5.0%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin trend
Banks and insurers do not report gross profit.
Past performance5/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 18.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 19.5% over five years.
Return on assets over 1%
Return on assets was 5.4%; for a bank or insurer, 1% or more is considered good.
Return on equity above the industry
Arch Capital's return on equity of 18.7% is above the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 15.9%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 25.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 23.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 23.6%.
Net margin above the industry
Arch Capital's net margin of 23.3% is above the Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median of 12.0%.
Financial health0/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term liquidity
Insurers do not split assets into current and non-current.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman Z)
The Altman model does not apply to insurers.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
Arch Capital paid dividends worth 7.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield above Treasuries
The 7.5% yield is above the 4.3% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield in the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 4.0% or more; Arch Capital yields 7.5%.
Dividend stability
Fewer than five years of dividend history.
Earnings cover
Needs dividends paid and net income.
Cash-flow cover
Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$70.98
The share price is 79% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3× | 1.8× | 10.9× | $77.35 | 50% |
| P/B | 1.0× | 0.4× | 1.5× | $64.62 | 50% |
| Fair value | $70.98 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 1.8
- Fire, Marine, and Casualty Insurance median 10.9
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
High risk
- Average value traded per day
- $1.12M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $1.32M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 6.7%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 11%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -1.62
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.32
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +14.3% | +27.5% | +18.6% | +17.6% | |
| Net income | +2.0% | +43.9% | +25.6% | +23.4% | |
| EPS, diluted | +3.7% | +45.1% | +28.4% | +23.9% | |
| Free cash flow | -7.5% | +17.6% | +16.6% | +20.1% | |
| Dividend per share | 0.0% | – | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 9.6% | 11.4% | 19.5% | |
| Return on assets | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.9% | |
| Capex to revenue | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| Diluted shares | 374M | 410M | 376M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Arch Capital generated $25.84B from operations and spent $3.97B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 6% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 22.1% | 0.27× | 3.33× | 19.5% |
| FY2024 | 24.7% | 0.27× | 3.31× | 22.0% |
| FY2023 | 32.6% | 0.26× | 3.42× | 28.4% |
| FY2022 | 15.4% | 0.21× | 3.52× | 11.2% |
| FY2021 | 23.3% | 0.21× | 3.32× | 16.2% |
| FY2020 | 16.5% | 0.21× | 3.30× | 11.4% |
| FY2019 | 23.6% | 0.20× | 3.35× | 15.6% |
| FY2018 | 13.9% | 0.17× | 3.45× | 8.1% |
| FY2017 | 11.0% | 0.18× | 3.52× | 7.1% |
| FY2016 | 15.5% | 0.17× | 3.64× | 9.6% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$4.40B
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$6.17B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year7.3% → 6.2%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$6.17B vs $4.40B
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose– → –
- No dilutionShare count did not rise382M → 376M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.30 → 0.28
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