Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) stock analysis

P/E below its 5-year median

Waste Connections's P/E of 43.0 is below its own 5-year median of 52.3.

P/E above the industry

Waste Connections's P/E of 43.0 is above the Electric, Gas, and Sanitary Services median of 20.2.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

Waste Connections's EV/EBITDA of 18.7 is below its 5-year median of 33.6.

P/S above the industry

Waste Connections's price-to-sales of 4.84 is above the Electric, Gas, and Sanitary Services median of 2.33 (book value is negative, so we use sales).

Trading above fair value

The share price of $192.23 is above our fair value estimate of $180.62.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 6.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew 9.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew 8.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 6.3% over the last twelve months; the Electric, Gas, and Sanitary Services median is 5.5%.

Guidance raised

Waste Connections raised its 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities outlook on Oct 21, 2026.

Gross margin improving

Gross margin was 42.6% over the last twelve months, against 42.1% a year earlier.

Return on equity

Needs positive equity and five years of results.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was 8.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity against the industry

Needs positive equity.

Earnings grew over 5 years

Net income grew 39.4% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

Net margin against its history

Needs five years of revenue and net income.

Net margin against the industry

Needs revenue and net income.

Debt level

Needs debt and equity figures.

Debt trend

Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 26.8% of total debt.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 4.9 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

Current assets are 0.67 times current liabilities.

Low bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 3.19; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Waste Connections paid dividends worth 0.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 0.5% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Waste Connections yields 0.5%.

Dividend not cut

The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

Earnings cover

Needs dividends paid and net income.

Covered by free cash flow

Dividends take 28.4% of free cash flow.