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VERRA MOBILITY Corp (VRRM) stock analysis

VRRMNasdaqTransportation ServicesFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 30, 2026Score 12/3082% below fair value
$1.96−0.10 (-4.85%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $297.94MP/E 8.2Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value6Growth2Performance2Health2Dividend0

Mixed12 of 30 checks passed

Verra Mobility passes 12 of the 30 checks behind our score; 8 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
6/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
2/6
Financial health
2/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 81.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $2.06 is below our fair value estimate of $11.30.

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 12.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 19.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 11.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 25.5% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was 5.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • High debt

    Debt is 390% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 2.1 times; we look for at least 5.

Valuation6/6

  • P/E below its 5-year median

    Verra Mobility's P/E of 8.6 is below its own 5-year median of 43.2.

  • P/E below the industry

    Verra Mobility's P/E of 8.6 is below the Transportation Services median of 19.9.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    Verra Mobility's EV/EBITDA of 5.0 is below its 5-year median of 14.5.

  • P/B below the industry

    Verra Mobility's price-to-book of 1.18 is below the Transportation Services median of 2.01.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $2.06 is below our fair value estimate of $11.30.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 81.8% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6

  • Revenue growing 10%+ a year

    Revenue grew 12.1% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 19.3% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew -14.0% over the last twelve months; the Transportation Services median is 9.5%.

  • Guidance lowered

    Verra Mobility lowered its 2026 full year Total Revenue outlook on Aug 5, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance2/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was 11.3% over the last twelve months and averaged 25.5% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was 5.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Verra Mobility's return on equity of 11.3% is above the Transportation Services median of 3.8%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was 33.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 77.3%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    Verra Mobility's net margin of 33.2% is above the Transportation Services median of 1.0%.

Financial health2/6

  • High debt

    Debt is 390% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt rising against equity

    Debt to equity rose from 267% five years ago to 390%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 24.4% of total debt.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense 2.1 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 2.05 times current liabilities.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.42; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Verra Mobility has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$11.30

The share price is 82% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$2.06Price$11.30Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E31.7×43.2×19.9×$7.6040%
EV/EBITDA13.3×14.5×12.1×$15.1935%
P/B6.0×9.8×2.0×$10.3710%
Earnings power7.7% cost of equity––$12.6915%
Fair value$11.30100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 43.2
  • Transportation Services median 19.9

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$14.27M
Value traded per 1% price move
$5.65M

Downside

High risk

Typical loss in a bad month
70.2%
Volatility (annualized)
90%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-1.07
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.56

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2016 to 2025

Operating margin

179.3%−105.0 pts over 5 years

Net margin

102.8%+137.2 pts over 5 years

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