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Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) stock analysis

ULCCNasdaqAir Transportation, ScheduledFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 28, 2026Score 2/30
$8.08−0.01 (-0.12%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.86BP/E –Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value0Growth2Performance0Health0Dividend0

Weak2 of 30 checks passed

Frontier passes 2 of the 30 checks behind our score; 14 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
0/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
0/6
Financial health
0/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Guidance raised

    Frontier raised its Full Year 2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refunds outlook on Oct 28, 2026.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 24.0% over the last twelve months; the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median is 11.0%.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -175% over the last twelve months and averaged -8.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -878%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • High debt

    Debt is 1303% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 3.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

Valuation0/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA against its history

    Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

  • P/B above the industry

    Frontier's price-to-book of 50.32 is above the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 1.77.

  • Price against fair value

    We could not estimate a fair value: it needs at least two valuation methods with positive inputs.

  • Margin of safety

    Depends on the fair value estimate.

Growth2/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 3.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 24.0% over the last twelve months; the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median is 11.0%.

  • Guidance raised

    Frontier raised its Full Year 2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refunds outlook on Oct 28, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance0/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -175% over the last twelve months and averaged -8.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -878%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity below the industry

    Frontier's return on equity of -175% is below the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 13.9%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was -8.9% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -1.6%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Frontier's net margin of -8.9% is below the Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median of 4.6%.

Financial health0/6

  • High debt

    Debt is 1303% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt rising against equity

    Debt to equity rose from 112% five years ago to 1303%.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 12.2% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense -9.5 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 0.62 times current liabilities.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.39; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Frontier has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

We don't publish a fair value for Frontier. It needs a US-dollar share price, at least two valuation methods with positive inputs (earnings, EBITDA, book value or sales) and, for companies with several share classes, classes that trade at the same price.

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Air Transportation, Scheduled, and Air Courier median 17.7

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$24.06M
Value traded per 1% price move
$5.35M

Downside

High risk

Typical loss in a bad month
39.3%
Volatility (annualized)
81%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.33
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.87

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2025

Operating margin

-4.0%+25.2 pts over 5 years

Net margin

-3.7%+14.3 pts over 5 years

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