Talen Energy Corp (TLN) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $18.53BP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak2 of 30 checks passed
Talen Energy passes 2 of the 30 checks behind our score; 16 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Guidance raised
Talen Energy raised its 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow outlook on Nov 3, 2026.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 60.8% over the last twelve months; the Electric Services median is 7.8%.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 216% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $378.71 is above our fair value estimate of $119.94.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 0.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
High debt
Debt is 592% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Valuation0/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Talen Energy's EV/EBITDA of 65.8 is above its 5-year median of 21.7.
P/B above the industry
Talen Energy's price-to-book of 11.23 is above the Electric Services median of 2.02.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $378.71 is above our fair value estimate of $119.94.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 216% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -5.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 60.8% over the last twelve months; the Electric Services median is 7.8%.
Guidance raised
Talen Energy raised its 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow outlook on Nov 3, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 0.9%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin against the industry
Needs revenue and net income.
Financial health0/6
High debt
Debt is 592% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 111% five years ago to 592%.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 8.3% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.78 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.95; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Talen Energy has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$119.94
The share price is 216% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 3.4× | 5.8× | 2.0× | $113.03 | 29% |
| P/S | 3.1× | 3.8× | 2.8× | $225.01 | 29% |
| Earnings power | 14.9% cost of equity | – | – | $54.49 | 43% |
| Fair value | $119.94 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 69.5
- Electric Services median 20.9
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $428.42M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $133.15M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 18.3%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 58%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.14
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 2.50
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2012 to 2025
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +22.0% | -5.8% | – | -5.4% | |
| Free cash flow | +254.4% | – | – | +6.7% |
Returns and balance sheet
9 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2012 | FY2015 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | -8.3% | -17.7% | |
| Return on assets | – | -2.9% | -2.6% | |
| Current ratio | – | 1.32 | 1.28 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 1.11 | 6.23 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | – | 32.39× | |
| Interest coverage | – | -0.2× | – | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 10.1% | 3.8% | |
| Diluted shares | – | 110M | 46M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Talen Energy does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -8.5% | 0.30× | 6.86× | -17.7% |
| FY2024 | 47.2% | 0.32× | 3.44× | 51.9% |
| FY2015 | -7.6% | 0.38× | 2.87× | -8.3% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$219.00M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$704.00M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year14.0% → -3.6%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$704.00M vs -$219.00M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell48.9% → 62.2%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose2.29 → 1.28
- No dilutionShare count did not rise56M → 46M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.30 → 0.42
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