Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $1.18BP/E –Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak5 of 30 checks passed
Target Hospitality passes 5 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 1/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 2/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $11.80 is below our fair value estimate of $14.46.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 69.3% of total debt.
Guidance raised
Target Hospitality raised its Full Year 2026 Total revenue outlook on Aug 10, 2026.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 19.9% over the last twelve months; the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median is 5.1%.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 18.4% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -12.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 22.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -6.0%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
High debt
Debt is 69.4% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Valuation1/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E against the industry
Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
Target Hospitality's EV/EBITDA of 27.9 is above its 5-year median of 6.9.
P/B above the industry
Target Hospitality's price-to-book of 3.53 is above the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median of 2.63.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $11.80 is below our fair value estimate of $14.46.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 18.4% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -13.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 19.9% over the last twelve months; the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median is 5.1%.
Guidance raised
Target Hospitality raised its Full Year 2026 Total revenue outlook on Aug 10, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 15.7% over the last twelve months, against 23.1% a year earlier.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was -12.5% over the last twelve months and averaged 22.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was -6.0%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Target Hospitality's return on equity of -12.5% is below the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median of 15.3%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was -12.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 10.2%.
Net margin below the industry
Target Hospitality's net margin of -12.2% is below the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median of 5.2%.
Financial health2/6
High debt
Debt is 69.4% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 383% five years ago to 69.4%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 69.3% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.45 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 1.73; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Target Hospitality has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$14.46
The share price is 18% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDAleft out, too far from the others | 8.2× | 6.9× | 9.6× | $1.87 | – |
| P/B | 3.0× | 3.4× | 2.6× | $10.13 | 40% |
| Earnings power | 7.4% cost of equity | – | – | $17.34 | 60% |
| Fair value | $14.46 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 11.9
- Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median 24.5
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $41.15M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $10.66M
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 35.8%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 72%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 1.01
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.31
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2016 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -17.0% | -13.9% | +7.3% | – | |
| Gross profit | -76.1% | -44.3% | -5.7% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | -22.9% | -9.2% | |
| Return on assets | – | -4.7% | -5.9% | |
| Current ratio | – | 0.96 | 0.87 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 3.83 | 0.01 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | 5.33× | -0.12× | |
| Interest coverage | – | – | – | |
| Inventory turnover | – | 168.0× | 139.0× | |
| Diluted shares | – | 96M | 100M |
Cash use needs five years of cash flow figures
Target Hospitality does not report operating cash flow and capital expenditure for each of the last five fiscal years.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | -11.6% | 0.51× | 1.55× | -9.2% |
| FY2024 | 18.4% | 0.54× | 1.78× | 17.9% |
| FY2023 | 30.8% | 0.77× | 2.54× | 60.1% |
| FY2022 | 14.7% | 0.78× | 4.31× | 49.6% |
| FY2021 | -1.6% | 0.56× | 5.34× | -4.7% |
| FY2020 | -11.2% | 0.42× | 4.87× | -22.9% |
| FY2019 | 3.7% | 0.58× | 2.34× | 5.1% |
| FY2018 | 2.1% | 0.85× | 1.51× | 2.7% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero-$37.12M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$74.09M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year10.3% → -5.1%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$74.09M vs -$37.12M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell0.2% → 0.3%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.07 → 0.87
- No dilutionShare count did not rise101M → 100M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year46.13% → 13.30%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.56 → 0.44
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