Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) stock analysis
Close on Nov 13, 2026Market cap $3.33BP/E 8.4Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 13, 2026How the score works
Mixed11 of 30 checks passed
Hilton Grand Vacations passes 11 of the 30 checks behind our score; 14 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 6/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 63.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $43.92 is below our fair value estimate of $120.01.
P/E below its 5-year median
Hilton Grand Vacations's P/E of 8.4 is below its own 5-year median of 22.7.
P/E below the industry
Hilton Grand Vacations's P/E of 8.4 is below the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median of 24.4.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 31.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 9.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -32.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.71; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Valuation6/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Hilton Grand Vacations's P/E of 8.4 is below its own 5-year median of 22.7.
P/E below the industry
Hilton Grand Vacations's P/E of 8.4 is below the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median of 24.4.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Hilton Grand Vacations's EV/EBITDA of 2.7 is below its 5-year median of 5.1.
P/B below the industry
Hilton Grand Vacations's price-to-book of 2.55 is below the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median of 2.56.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $43.92 is below our fair value estimate of $120.01.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 63.4% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 9.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -32.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 18.8% over the last twelve months; the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median is 5.1%.
Guidance raised
Hilton Grand Vacations raised its full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA, excluding deferrals and recognitions outlook on Apr 30, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 31.0% over the last twelve months and averaged 10.9% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on invested capital
Needs operating income and invested capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Hilton Grand Vacations's return on equity of 31.0% is above the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median of 15.3%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 7.0% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.4%.
Net margin above the industry
Hilton Grand Vacations's net margin of 7.0% is above the Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median of 5.2%.
Financial health0/6
Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term liquidity
The balance sheet is not split into current and non-current items.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.71; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Hilton Grand Vacations has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$120.01
The share price is 63% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.5× | 22.7× | 24.4× | $122.25 | 53% |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3× | 5.1× | 9.5× | $117.44 | 47% |
| Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others | 11.6% cost of equity | – | – | $29.52 | – |
| Fair value | $120.01 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 22.7
- Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps, and Other Lodging Places median 24.4
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $48.36M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $27.79M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 19.5%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 40%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.10
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.30
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2014 to 2025
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +1.3% | +9.6% | +41.4% | +13.1% | |
| Net income | +72.3% | -38.7% | – | -7.4% | |
| EPS, diluted | +97.8% | -32.8% | – | -6.6% | |
| Free cash flow | -13.9% | -30.6% | +26.5% | +5.1% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 549.6% | -42.6% | 5.3% | |
| Return on assets | – | -6.5% | 0.7% | |
| Capex to revenue | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| Diluted shares | 99M | 85M | 92M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Hilton Grand Vacations generated $1.84B from operations and spent $1.89B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 12% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 1.6% | 0.44× | 7.56× | 5.3% |
| FY2024 | 0.9% | 0.49× | 5.20× | 2.4% |
| FY2023 | 7.9% | 0.48× | 3.91× | 14.7% |
| FY2022 | 9.2% | 0.48× | 3.87× | 17.0% |
| FY2021 | 7.5% | 0.42× | 4.72× | 14.9% |
| FY2020 | -22.5% | 0.29× | 6.58× | -42.6% |
| FY2019 | 11.7% | 0.63× | 4.92× | 36.4% |
| FY2018 | 14.9% | 0.78× | 4.53× | 52.6% |
| FY2017 | 19.1% | 0.75× | 6.66× | 95.4% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$81.00M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$300.00M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year0.5% → 0.7%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$300.00M vs $81.00M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose– → –
- No dilutionShare count did not rise103M → 92M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.57 → 0.44
See a number that looks wrong?