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Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) stock analysis

TALONYSECrude Petroleum & Natural GasFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 4, 2026Score 5/301% below fair value
$16.26+0.28 (+1.75%)

Close on Nov 13, 2026Market cap $2.71BP/E –Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 13, 2026How the score works

Value1Growth1Performance0Health3Dividend0

Weak5 of 30 checks passed

Talos Energy passes 5 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
1/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
0/6
Financial health
3/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $16.26 is below our fair value estimate of $16.38.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 71.8% of total debt.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 13.5% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 9.1%.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 106% five years ago to 72.2%.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 0.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -18.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 1.2% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -0.2%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • High debt

    Debt is 72.2% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Valuation1/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

    Talos Energy's EV/EBITDA of 4.0 is above its 5-year median of 2.9.

  • P/B above the industry

    Talos Energy's price-to-book of 1.40 is above the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 1.38.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $16.26 is below our fair value estimate of $16.38.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 0.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 2.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 13.5% over the last twelve months; the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median is 9.1%.

  • Guidance lowered

    Talos Energy lowered its FY 2026 G&A outlook on Nov 3, 2026.

  • Gross margin trend

    This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance0/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -18.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 1.2% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -0.2%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity below the industry

    Talos Energy's return on equity of -18.1% is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 5.5%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was -18.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -2.1%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Talos Energy's net margin of -18.4% is below the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median of 4.5%.

Financial health3/6

  • High debt

    Debt is 72.2% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 106% five years ago to 72.2%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 71.8% of total debt.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense -0.1 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.15 times current liabilities.

  • Elevated bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 0.55; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Talos Energy has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$16.38

The share price is 1% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$16.26Price
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA4.2×2.9×5.5×$17.4378%
P/B1.1×0.8×1.4×$12.6922%
Earnings powerleft out, too far from the others8.4% cost of equity––$57.26–
Fair value$16.38100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 9.0
  • Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas median 10.2

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$62.53M
Value traded per 1% price move
$20.61M

Downside

Low risk

Typical loss in a bad month
14.3%
Volatility (annualized)
49%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
1.05
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.67

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2015 to 2025

Operating margin

-31.5%+41.7 pts over 5 years

Net margin

-27.8%+53.1 pts over 5 years

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