StockData

Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL) stock analysis

SMPLNasdaqFood and Kindred ProductsFiscal year ends August 26
Financials through Q4 FY2026, quarter ended Aug 29, 2026Last filing: 10-K on Oct 27, 2026Score 9/3056% below fair value
$12.65+0.01 (+0.08%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $1.10BP/E –Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value3Growth1Performance1Health4Dividend0

Mixed9 of 30 checks passed

Simply Good Foods passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
3/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
1/6
Financial health
4/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 55.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $12.64 is below our fair value estimate of $28.67.

  • Low debt

    Debt is 23.9% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 52.1% of total debt.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -9.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 4.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -7.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 3.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense -8.4 times; we look for at least 5.

Valuation3/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA against its history

    Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

  • P/B below the industry

    Simply Good Foods's price-to-book of 0.76 is below the Food and Kindred Products median of 1.73.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $12.64 is below our fair value estimate of $28.67.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 55.9% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 3.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew -6.5% over the last twelve months; the Food and Kindred Products median is 1.4%.

  • Guidance raised

    Simply Good Foods raised its fiscal year 2026 Net Sales outlook on Jul 9, 2026.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 32.6% over the last twelve months, against 36.2% a year earlier.

Past performance1/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -9.6% over the last twelve months and averaged 4.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -7.8%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    Simply Good Foods's return on equity of -9.6% is above the Food and Kindred Products median of -15.0%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was -11.5% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.2%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Simply Good Foods's net margin of -11.5% is below the Food and Kindred Products median of -4.1%.

Financial health4/6

  • Low debt

    Debt is 23.9% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt falling against equity

    Debt to equity fell from 38.0% five years ago to 23.9%.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 52.1% of total debt.

  • Interest not well covered

    Operating income covers interest expense -8.4 times; we look for at least 5.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 5.57 times current liabilities.

  • Bankruptcy risk in the grey zone

    The Altman Z-score is 2.01; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Simply Good Foods has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$28.67

The share price is 56% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$12.64Price$28.67Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/B2.0×2.2×1.7×$32.7629%
P/S1.7×2.8×0.6×$26.6429%
Earnings power7.4% cost of equity––$27.2943%
Fair value$28.67100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 26.3
  • Food and Kindred Products median 21.0

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$25.09M
Value traded per 1% price move
$8.89M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
24.3%
Volatility (annualized)
52%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.75
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.45

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2017 to 2026

Gross margin

32.6%−8.1 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

-13.2%−30.5 pts over 5 years

Net margin

-11.5%−15.6 pts over 5 years

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