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RXO, Inc. (RXO) stock analysis

RXONYSETransportation ServicesFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 29, 2026Score 4/30196% above fair value
$28.14+0.21 (+0.75%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $4.64BP/E –Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value0Growth1Performance0Health3Dividend0

Weak4 of 30 checks passed

RXO passes 4 of the 30 checks behind our score; 13 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
0/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
0/6
Financial health
3/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Low debt

    Debt is 32.7% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 3.18; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 10.1% over the last twelve months; the Transportation Services median is 9.5%.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.28 times current liabilities.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 196% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $28.14 is above our fair value estimate of $9.52.

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -5.7% over the last twelve months and averaged -1.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -2.1%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Valuation0/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

    RXO's EV/EBITDA of 91.3 is above its 5-year median of 47.5.

  • P/B above the industry

    RXO's price-to-book of 3.06 is above the Transportation Services median of 2.01.

  • Trading above fair value

    The share price of $28.14 is above our fair value estimate of $9.52.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 196% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Growth1/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 6.2% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing faster than the industry

    Revenue grew 10.1% over the last twelve months; the Transportation Services median is 9.5%.

  • Guidance issued

    The latest outlook (third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA, Aug 6, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 17.7% over the last twelve months, against 19.8% a year earlier.

Past performance0/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -5.7% over the last twelve months and averaged -1.4% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -2.1%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity below the industry

    RXO's return on equity of -5.7% is below the Transportation Services median of 3.8%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was -1.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -0.6%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    RXO's net margin of -1.3% is below the Transportation Services median of 1.0%.

Financial health3/6

  • Low debt

    Debt is 32.7% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.

  • Debt trend

    Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.

  • Debt not well covered by cash flow

    Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals -3.0% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

  • Interest coverage

    Interest expense is not reported separately.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 1.28 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 3.18; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    RXO has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$9.52

The share price is 196% above this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$28.14Price$9.52Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
EV/EBITDA26.5×47.5×12.1×$6.1478%
P/B2.3×2.8×2.0×$21.3622%
Fair value$9.52100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Transportation Services median 19.9

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Low risk

Average value traded per day
$125.44M
Value traded per 1% price move
$23.79M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
23.4%
Volatility (annualized)
70%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
2.00
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.71

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2019 to 2025

Gross margin

19.7%−3.8 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

-1.4%−3.2 pts over 5 years

Net margin

-1.7%−3.0 pts over 5 years

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