OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) stock analysis

OPALNasdaqGas & Other Services CombinedFiscal year ends December 31

Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 9, 2026Score 7/3045% below fair value

$1.39+0.09 (+6.92%)

Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $242.91MP/E 19.9Yield –

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Weak7 of 30 checks passed

OPAL Fuels passes 7 of the 30 checks behind our score; 17 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation: 4/6
Growth: 1/6
Past performance: 1/6
Financial health: 1/6
Dividend: 0/6

What stands out

Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 45.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $1.39 is below our fair value estimate of $2.54.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 10.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 14.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.

What to watch

EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 7.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 0.6 times; we look for at least 5.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.57; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
P/E above the industry
OPAL Fuels's P/E of 19.9 is above the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 19.2.

Valuation4/6

P/E below its 5-year median
OPAL Fuels's P/E of 19.9 is below its own 5-year median of 21.1.
P/E above the industry
OPAL Fuels's P/E of 19.9 is above the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 19.2.
EV/EBITDA against its history
Needs positive EBITDA and price history.
P/B below the industry
OPAL Fuels's price-to-book of 1.08 is below the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 1.74.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $1.39 is below our fair value estimate of $2.54.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 45.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6

Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 14.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 7.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 2.1% over the last twelve months; the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median is 5.2%.
Guidance issued
The latest outlook (2026 Adjusted EBITDA, Mar 16, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.

Past performance1/6

Return on equity
Needs positive equity and five years of results.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 10.7%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity against the industry
Needs positive equity.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin against its history
Needs five years of revenue and net income.
Net margin against the industry
Needs revenue and net income.

Financial health1/6

Debt level
Needs debt and equity figures.
Debt trend
Needs a balance sheet from five years ago with positive equity.
Debt coverage
Needs operating cash flow.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 0.6 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 1.54 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.57; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

No dividend
OPAL Fuels has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$2.54

The share price is 45% below this estimate.

20%+ below

Near fair value

20%+ above

$1.39Price$2.54Fair value

Method	Multiple used	Own 5Y median	Industry median	Value per share	Weight
P/E	19.9×	21.1×	19.2×	$1.40	62%
EV/EBITDAleft out, too far from the others	12.1×	9.0×	14.0×	$18.45	–
P/B	1.7×	–	1.7×	$2.24	15%
Earnings power	9.8% cost of equity	–	–	$5.80	23%
Fair value				$2.54	100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

P/E at month end
Own 5-year median 21.1
Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median 19.2

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

High risk

Average value traded per day: $273.27K
Value traded per 1% price move: $115.97K

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month: 22.3%
Volatility (annualized): 75%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year: -0.58
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y): 0.98

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2020 to 2025

Operating margin

2.1%

Per year	1 year	3 years	5 years	10 years
Revenue	+16.3%	+14.0%	–	–
Operating income	-65.1%	-0.7%	–	–
EPS, diluted	+650.0%	+7.7%	–	–

Returns and balance sheet

6 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.

Measure	FY2020	FY2020	FY2025
Current ratio	–	–	1.33
Debt to equity	–	–	–
Net debt to EBITDA	–	–	–
Interest coverage	–	–	0.3×
Capex to revenue	–	–	20.3%
Diluted shares	–	–	29M