Montauk Renewables, Inc. (MNTK) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $146.61MP/E 17.2Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Weak8 of 30 checks passed
Montauk Renewables passes 8 of the 30 checks behind our score; 6 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 6/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 0/6
- Financial health
- 1/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 53.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $1.07 is below our fair value estimate of $2.29.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 200% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -17.6% a year.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 29.0% of total debt.
What to watch
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 3.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 5.1% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 0.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
High debt
Debt is 56.6% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Earnings shrank over 5 years
Net income shrank 17.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Valuation6/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Montauk Renewables's P/E of 17.8 is below its own 5-year median of 46.4.
P/E below the industry
Montauk Renewables's P/E of 17.8 is below the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 19.2.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Montauk Renewables's EV/EBITDA of 8.4 is below its 5-year median of 15.5.
P/B below the industry
Montauk Renewables's price-to-book of 0.58 is below the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 1.74.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $1.07 is below our fair value estimate of $2.29.
Margin of safety over 20%
The price is 53.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew -5.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew -65.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 200% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -17.6% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 4.3% over the last twelve months; the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median is 5.2%.
Guidance lowered
Montauk Renewables lowered its 2026 Full Year REG revenues outlook on Aug 5, 2026.
Gross margin trend
This company does not report gross profit.
Past performance0/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 3.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 5.1% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 0.3%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Montauk Renewables's return on equity of 3.1% is below the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 9.2%.
Earnings shrank over 5 years
Net income shrank 17.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 4.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 5.8%.
Net margin below the industry
Montauk Renewables's net margin of 4.2% is below the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 12.7%.
Financial health1/6
High debt
Debt is 56.6% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 41.5% five years ago to 56.6%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 29.0% of total debt.
Interest not well covered
Operating income covers interest expense 0.2 times; we look for at least 5.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.62 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.98; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Montauk Renewables has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$2.29
The share price is 53% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.9× | 46.4× | 19.2× | $1.97 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7× | 15.5× | 14.0× | $2.58 | 35% |
| P/B | 2.4× | 3.0× | 1.7× | $4.44 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 9.3% cost of equity | – | – | $1.02 | 15% |
| Fair value | $2.29 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 46.4
- Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median 19.2
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
High risk
- Average value traded per day
- $1.56M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $187.62K
Downside
High risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 32.1%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 98%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.48
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.88
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2018 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +0.4% | -5.0% | +11.9% | – | |
| Operating income | -94.7% | -73.3% | -25.0% | – | |
| Net income | -82.0% | -63.2% | -17.6% | – | |
| EPS, diluted | -85.7% | -65.8% | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
8 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2018 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | – | 2.9% | 0.7% | |
| Return on assets | – | 1.9% | 0.4% | |
| Current ratio | – | 1.14 | 1.11 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 0.42 | 0.49 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | 1.74× | 3.41× | |
| Interest coverage | – | 0.8× | 0.2× | |
| Capex to revenue | – | 17.6% | 66.1% | |
| Diluted shares | – | – | 143M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Montauk Renewables generated $239.13M from operations and spent $287.59M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 95% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 1.0% | 0.45× | 1.51× | 0.7% |
| FY2024 | 5.5% | 0.50× | 1.38× | 3.8% |
| FY2023 | 8.5% | 0.51× | 1.43× | 6.3% |
| FY2022 | 17.1% | 0.66× | 1.51× | 17.2% |
| FY2021 | -3.1% | 0.55× | 1.58× | -2.6% |
| FY2020 | 4.6% | 0.40× | 1.58× | 2.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$1.75M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$30.33M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year2.8% → 0.5%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$30.33M vs $1.75M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell12.5% → 28.9%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose1.71 → 1.11
- No dilutionShare count did not rise142M → 143M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year– → –
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.50 → 0.51
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