Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) stock analysis
Close on Nov 13, 2026Market cap $5.63BP/E 21.2Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 13, 2026How the score works
Solid17 of 30 checks passed
Ollie's Bargain Outlet passes 17 of the 30 checks behind our score; 6 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 5/6
- Growth
- 5/6
- Past performance
- 3/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $94.76 is below our fair value estimate of $107.29.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 15.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Low debt
Debt is 0.1% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 13.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 11.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 14.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 11.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Earnings shrank over 5 years
Net income shrank 0.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Guidance lowered
Ollie's Bargain Outlet lowered its fiscal year 2026 Net sales outlook on Sep 2, 2026.
Valuation5/6
P/E below its 5-year median
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's P/E of 21.2 is below its own 5-year median of 31.1.
P/E below the industry
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's P/E of 21.2 is below the Variety Stores median of 22.1.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's EV/EBITDA of 13.7 is below its 5-year median of 20.5.
P/B below the industry
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's price-to-book of 2.97 is below the Variety Stores median of 5.48.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $94.76 is below our fair value estimate of $107.29.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 11.7% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth5/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 13.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 33.4% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth accelerating
Net income grew 28.3% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -0.2% a year.
Growing faster than the industry
Revenue grew 14.4% over the last twelve months; the Variety Stores median is 9.6%.
Guidance lowered
Ollie's Bargain Outlet lowered its fiscal year 2026 Net sales outlook on Sep 2, 2026.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 41.6% over the last twelve months, against 40.7% a year earlier.
Past performance3/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 14.9% over the last twelve months and averaged 11.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 15.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity below the industry
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's return on equity of 14.9% is below the Variety Stores median of 24.9%.
Earnings shrank over 5 years
Net income shrank 0.2% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 9.8% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 8.2%.
Net margin above the industry
Ollie's Bargain Outlet's net margin of 9.8% is above the Variety Stores median of 4.0%.
Financial health4/6
Low debt
Debt is 0.1% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 0.1% five years ago to 0.1%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 15287% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 2.23 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 5.29; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Ollie's Bargain Outlet has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$107.29
The share price is 12% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.6× | 31.1× | 22.1× | $119.29 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.6× | 20.5× | 12.6× | $113.80 | 35% |
| P/B | 4.3× | 3.2× | 5.5× | $138.48 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 9.2% cost of equity | – | – | $39.32 | 15% |
| Fair value | $107.29 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 31.1
- Variety Stores median 22.1
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $137.39M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $66.06M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 19.8%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 43%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.73
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.82
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2012 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +16.6% | +13.2% | +7.9% | +13.3% | |
| Gross profit | +17.3% | +17.8% | +8.2% | +13.5% | |
| Operating income | +19.3% | +31.5% | +1.4% | +14.1% | |
| Net income | +20.4% | +32.8% | -0.2% | +21.0% | |
| EPS, diluted | +20.4% | +33.4% | +1.1% | +19.8% | |
| Free cash flow | +82.1% | +45.9% | -10.1% | +19.9% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 9.9% | 20.3% | 13.4% | |
| Return on assets | 6.0% | 13.5% | 8.7% | |
| Current ratio | 2.98 | 2.85 | 2.41 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 0.85× | -1.49× | -0.73× | |
| Inventory turnover | 2.6× | 3.2× | 2.6× | |
| Capex to revenue | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.8% | |
| Diluted shares | 62M | 66M | 62M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Ollie's Bargain Outlet generated $937.87M from operations and spent $874.69M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 50% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 9.1% | 0.96× | 1.54× | 13.4% |
| FY2024 | 8.8% | 0.94× | 1.52× | 12.5% |
| FY2023 | 8.6% | 0.97× | 1.51× | 12.6% |
| FY2022 | 5.6% | 0.91× | 1.52× | 7.8% |
| FY2021 | 9.0% | 0.88× | 1.52× | 12.0% |
| FY2020 | 13.4% | 1.00× | 1.50× | 20.3% |
| FY2019 | 10.0% | 1.02× | 1.38× | 14.1% |
| FY2018 | 10.9% | 1.13× | 1.26× | 15.5% |
| FY2017 | 11.8% | 1.04× | 1.44× | 17.6% |
| FY2016 | 6.7% | 0.90× | 1.63× | 9.9% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$240.60M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$296.54M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year8.7% → 9.4%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$296.54M vs $240.60M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell0.0% → 0.0%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose3.27 → 2.41
- No dilutionShare count did not rise62M → 62M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year40.25% → 40.50%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.99 → 1.03
See a number that looks wrong?