BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) stock analysis
Close on Nov 11, 2026Market cap $13.98BP/E 24.2Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Mixed9 of 30 checks passed
BJ's Wholesale Club passes 9 of the 30 checks behind our score; 6 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 0/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 4/6
- Financial health
- 4/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 27.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 50.3% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 23.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Low debt
Debt is 28.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 6.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 13.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $110.71 is above our fair value estimate of $97.61.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 3.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 5.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Valuation0/6
P/E above its 5-year median
BJ's Wholesale Club's P/E of 24.2 is above its own 5-year median of 21.0.
P/E above the industry
BJ's Wholesale Club's P/E of 24.2 is above the Variety Stores median of 22.5.
EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median
BJ's Wholesale Club's EV/EBITDA of 12.6 is above its 5-year median of 11.7.
P/B above the industry
BJ's Wholesale Club's price-to-book of 6.36 is above the Variety Stores median of 5.57.
Trading above fair value
The share price of $110.71 is above our fair value estimate of $97.61.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 13.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 3.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing under 10% a year
Diluted EPS grew 5.2% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew 2.7% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 6.6% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 9.1% over the last twelve months; the Variety Stores median is 9.6%.
Guidance raised
BJ's Wholesale Club raised its fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS outlook on Aug 21, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 18.2% over the last twelve months, against 18.7% a year earlier.
Past performance4/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 27.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 50.3% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 23.5%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
BJ's Wholesale Club's return on equity of 27.7% is above the Variety Stores median of 24.9%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 6.6% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin below its 5-year average
Net margin was 2.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 2.6%.
Net margin below the industry
BJ's Wholesale Club's net margin of 2.6% is below the Variety Stores median of 4.0%.
Financial health4/6
Low debt
Debt is 28.6% of shareholders' equity, under the 40% we consider low.
Debt falling against equity
Debt to equity fell from 346% five years ago to 28.6%.
Debt covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 177% of total debt.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.73 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 4.80; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
BJ's Wholesale Club has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$97.61
The share price is 13% above this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.8× | 21.0× | 22.5× | $99.50 | 44% |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4× | 11.7× | 13.0× | $108.61 | 39% |
| Earnings power | 7.4% cost of equity | – | – | $66.92 | 17% |
| Fair value | $97.61 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 21.0
- Variety Stores median 22.5
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $206.13M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $123.04M
Downside
Low risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 9.0%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 30%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- 0.53
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 0.24
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2015 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +4.7% | +3.6% | +6.8% | – | |
| Gross profit | +6.2% | +5.2% | +6.1% | – | |
| Operating income | +5.7% | +3.4% | +4.9% | – | |
| Net income | +8.2% | +4.1% | +6.6% | – | |
| EPS, diluted | +9.5% | +5.2% | +7.6% | – | |
| Free cash flow | +4.8% | -5.6% | -12.8% | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | -11.8% | 317.8% | 28.6% | |
| Return on assets | – | 7.9% | 7.9% | |
| Current ratio | – | 0.72 | 0.75 | |
| Debt to equity | – | 3.46 | 0.24 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | – | 1.31× | 0.43× | |
| Interest coverage | 1.8× | 9.9× | 25.6× | |
| Inventory turnover | – | 10.9× | 11.4× | |
| Capex to revenue | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.3% | |
| Diluted shares | 91M | 139M | 132M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
BJ's Wholesale Club generated $4.27B from operations and spent $3.51B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 71% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2.7% | 2.94× | 3.60× | 28.6% |
| FY2024 | 2.6% | 2.98× | 4.16× | 32.3% |
| FY2023 | 2.6% | 3.07× | 5.20× | 41.8% |
| FY2022 | 2.7% | 3.21× | 7.09× | 60.6% |
| FY2021 | 2.6% | 3.01× | 11.45× | 88.2% |
| FY2020 | 2.7% | 2.89× | 40.31× | 317.8% |
| FY2019 | 1.4% | 3.10× | -33.18× | -146.0% |
| FY2018 | 1.0% | 3.99× | -5.29× | -20.7% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$578.38M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$1.03B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year8.0% → 8.2%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$1.03B vs $578.38M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell5.6% → 5.3%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.74 → 0.75
- No dilutionShare count did not rise134M → 132M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year18.36% → 18.64%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose3.07 → 3.04
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