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NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc (NSSC) stock analysis

NSSCNasdaqCommunications Equipment, NECFiscal year ends June 30
Financials through Q1 FY2027, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Nov 2, 2026Score 20/306% below fair value
$30.34−0.28 (-0.91%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $1.09BP/E 24.7Yield 1.91%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value3Growth2Performance6Health6Dividend3

Solid20 of 30 checks passed

NAPCO Security Technologies passes 20 of the 30 checks behind our score; 2 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
3/6
Growth
2/6
Past performance
6/6
Financial health
6/6
Dividend
3/6

What stands out

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $30.62 is below our fair value estimate of $32.66.

  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 23.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 24.1% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 59.8%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • No debt

    NAPCO Security Technologies has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

What to watch

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 6.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 6.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew -1.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.8% a year.

  • P/E above the industry

    NAPCO Security Technologies's P/E of 24.9 is above the Communications Equipment median of 24.9.

Valuation3/6
  • P/E below its 5-year median

    NAPCO Security Technologies's P/E of 24.9 is below its own 5-year median of 35.4.

  • P/E above the industry

    NAPCO Security Technologies's P/E of 24.9 is above the Communications Equipment median of 24.9.

  • EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

    NAPCO Security Technologies's EV/EBITDA of 20.0 is below its 5-year median of 29.4.

  • P/B above the industry

    NAPCO Security Technologies's price-to-book of 5.53 is above the Communications Equipment median of 2.54.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $30.62 is below our fair value estimate of $32.66.

  • Margin of safety under 20%

    The price is 6.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth2/6
  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew 6.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growing 10%+ a year

    Diluted EPS grew 18.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.

  • Earnings growth not accelerating

    Net income grew -1.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.8% a year.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew 8.7% over the last twelve months; the Communications Equipment median is 10.9%.

  • Company guidance

    No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.

  • Gross margin improving

    Gross margin was 59.7% over the last twelve months, against 55.8% a year earlier.

Past performance6/6
  • Return on equity over 15%

    Return on equity was 23.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 24.1% over five years.

  • Return on capital over 10%

    Return on invested capital was 59.8%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity above the industry

    NAPCO Security Technologies's return on equity of 23.4% is above the Communications Equipment median of -3.7%.

  • Earnings grew over 5 years

    Net income grew 22.8% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.

  • Net margin above its 5-year average

    Net margin was 21.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 20.2%.

  • Net margin above the industry

    NAPCO Security Technologies's net margin of 21.6% is above the Communications Equipment median of -2.2%.

Financial health6/6
  • No debt

    NAPCO Security Technologies has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Debt not rising

    With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    There is no debt to cover.

  • Interest well covered

    No meaningful interest expense to cover.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 7.23 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 23.57; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend3/6
  • Pays a dividend

    NAPCO Security Technologies paid dividends worth 2.0% of the share price over the last twelve months.

  • Yield below Treasuries

    The 2.0% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

  • Yield below the top quarter

    The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; NAPCO Security Technologies yields 2.0%.

  • Dividend stability

    Fewer than five years of dividend history.

  • Covered by earnings

    Dividends take 47.2% of net income.

  • Covered by free cash flow

    Dividends take 41.3% of free cash flow.

Scores of similar companies

Our estimate per share

$32.66

The share price is 6% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$30.62Price
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/E30.2×35.4×24.9×$37.1640%
EV/EBITDA24.8×29.4×20.0×$36.9835%
P/B5.4×8.2×2.5×$29.8110%
Earnings power11.5% cost of equity––$12.4915%
Fair value$32.66100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 35.4
  • Communications Equipment median 24.9

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

Medium risk

Average value traded per day
$15.23M
Value traded per 1% price move
$9.37M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
20.2%
Volatility (annualized)
43%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
-0.74
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
1.33

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2012 to 2026

Gross margin

59.2%+14.7 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

22.6%+6.8 pts over 5 years

Net margin

21.3%+7.8 pts over 5 years

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