NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc (NSSC) stock analysis
Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $1.09BP/E 24.7Yield 1.91%
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works
Solid20 of 30 checks passed
NAPCO Security Technologies passes 20 of the 30 checks behind our score; 2 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 3/6
- Growth
- 2/6
- Past performance
- 6/6
- Financial health
- 6/6
- Dividend
- 3/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $30.62 is below our fair value estimate of $32.66.
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 23.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 24.1% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 59.8%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
No debt
NAPCO Security Technologies has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 6.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 6.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -1.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.8% a year.
P/E above the industry
NAPCO Security Technologies's P/E of 24.9 is above the Communications Equipment median of 24.9.
Valuation3/6
P/E below its 5-year median
NAPCO Security Technologies's P/E of 24.9 is below its own 5-year median of 35.4.
P/E above the industry
NAPCO Security Technologies's P/E of 24.9 is above the Communications Equipment median of 24.9.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
NAPCO Security Technologies's EV/EBITDA of 20.0 is below its 5-year median of 29.4.
P/B above the industry
NAPCO Security Technologies's price-to-book of 5.53 is above the Communications Equipment median of 2.54.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $30.62 is below our fair value estimate of $32.66.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 6.3% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth2/6
Revenue growing under 10% a year
Revenue grew 6.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.
EPS growing 10%+ a year
Diluted EPS grew 18.0% a year over the last three fiscal years.
Earnings growth not accelerating
Net income grew -1.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 22.8% a year.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 8.7% over the last twelve months; the Communications Equipment median is 10.9%.
Company guidance
No outlook found in earnings releases from the last twelve months.
Gross margin improving
Gross margin was 59.7% over the last twelve months, against 55.8% a year earlier.
Past performance6/6
Return on equity over 15%
Return on equity was 23.4% over the last twelve months and averaged 24.1% over five years.
Return on capital over 10%
Return on invested capital was 59.8%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
NAPCO Security Technologies's return on equity of 23.4% is above the Communications Equipment median of -3.7%.
Earnings grew over 5 years
Net income grew 22.8% a year on average over the last five fiscal years.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 21.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 20.2%.
Net margin above the industry
NAPCO Security Technologies's net margin of 21.6% is above the Communications Equipment median of -2.2%.
Financial health6/6
No debt
NAPCO Security Technologies has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.
Debt not rising
With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.
Debt covered by cash flow
There is no debt to cover.
Interest well covered
No meaningful interest expense to cover.
Short-term assets cover short-term debts
Current assets are 7.23 times current liabilities.
Low bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 23.57; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend3/6
Pays a dividend
NAPCO Security Technologies paid dividends worth 2.0% of the share price over the last twelve months.
Yield below Treasuries
The 2.0% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.
Yield below the top quarter
The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; NAPCO Security Technologies yields 2.0%.
Dividend stability
Fewer than five years of dividend history.
Covered by earnings
Dividends take 47.2% of net income.
Covered by free cash flow
Dividends take 41.3% of free cash flow.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$32.66
The share price is 6% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.2× | 35.4× | 24.9× | $37.16 | 40% |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.8× | 29.4× | 20.0× | $36.98 | 35% |
| P/B | 5.4× | 8.2× | 2.5× | $29.81 | 10% |
| Earnings power | 11.5% cost of equity | – | – | $12.49 | 15% |
| Fair value | $32.66 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Own 5-year median 35.4
- Communications Equipment median 24.9
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Medium risk
- Average value traded per day
- $15.23M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $9.37M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 20.2%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 43%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.74
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.33
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2012 to 2026
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2026
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +11.4% | +6.0% | +12.1% | +9.4% | |
| Gross profit | +18.6% | +17.8% | +18.7% | +15.8% | |
| Operating income | -1.3% | +14.6% | +20.5% | +21.9% | |
| Net income | -0.9% | +16.6% | +22.8% | +22.2% | |
| EPS, diluted | +0.8% | +18.0% | +23.4% | +22.7% | |
| Free cash flow | +15.2% | +39.7% | +21.9% | +21.5% | |
| Dividend per share | +11.5% | +110.1% | – | – |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2017 | FY2021 | FY2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 10.4% | 18.2% | 23.9% | |
| Return on assets | 8.3% | 13.6% | 19.7% | |
| Current ratio | 4.90 | 4.72 | 4.90 | |
| Debt to equity | 0.06 | 0.08 | – | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 0.01× | -1.41× | – | |
| Interest coverage | 76.8× | – | – | |
| Inventory turnover | 2.1× | 2.1× | 2.7× | |
| Capex to revenue | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| Diluted shares | 38M | 37M | 36M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2022 to 2026, five years combined
NAPCO Security Technologies generated $193.07M from operations and spent $96.39M on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 10% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 21.3% | 0.93× | 1.21× | 23.9% |
| FY2025 | 23.9% | 0.89× | 1.17× | 25.0% |
| FY2024 | 26.4% | 1.01× | 1.17× | 31.2% |
| FY2023 | 16.0% | 1.08× | 1.24× | 21.4% |
| FY2022 | 13.6% | 1.06× | 1.32× | 19.0% |
| FY2021 | 13.5% | 1.00× | 1.34× | 18.2% |
| FY2020 | 7.7% | 1.06× | 1.29× | 10.6% |
| FY2019 | 12.1% | 1.29× | 1.20× | 18.8% |
| FY2018 | 8.3% | 1.27× | 1.21× | 12.8% |
| FY2017 | 6.4% | 1.29× | 1.25× | 10.4% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2026 against fiscal 2025
- ProfitableNet income above zero$43.03M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$61.15M
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year20.9% → 21.7%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$61.15M vs $43.03M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell– → –
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose6.75 → 4.90
- No dilutionShare count did not rise36M → 36M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year55.63% → 59.21%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.87 → 1.02
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