NiSource Inc. (NI) stock analysis

P/E above its 5-year median

NiSource's P/E of 23.2 is above its own 5-year median of 21.1.

P/E above the industry

NiSource's P/E of 23.2 is above the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 19.2.

EV/EBITDA above its 5-year median

NiSource's EV/EBITDA of 13.2 is above its 5-year median of 12.5.

P/B above the industry

NiSource's price-to-book of 2.28 is above the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 1.74.

Trading above fair value

The share price of $45.55 is above our fair value estimate of $41.12.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 10.8% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Revenue growing under 10% a year

Revenue grew 4.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

EPS growing under 10% a year

Diluted EPS grew 4.7% a year over the last three fiscal years.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 15.3% over the last twelve months; the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median is 5.2%.

Guidance issued

The latest outlook (2027 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS, Oct 28, 2026) was issued for the first time, so it neither adds nor takes away points.

Gross margin improving

Gross margin was 86.4% over the last twelve months, against 85.1% a year earlier.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 10.1% over the last twelve months and averaged 9.7% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital under 10%

Return on invested capital was 5.7%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

NiSource's return on equity of 10.1% is above the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 9.2%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin below its 5-year average

Net margin was 8.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 13.7%.

Net margin below the industry

NiSource's net margin of 8.2% is below the Combination Electric and Gas, and Other Utility median of 12.7%.

High debt

Debt is 191% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 169% five years ago to 191%.

Debt not well covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 13.0% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 2.4 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

Current assets are 0.50 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 0.86; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

NiSource paid dividends worth 2.0% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 2.0% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; NiSource yields 2.0%.

Dividend not cut

The dividend per share has not fallen by more than 10% in any of the last 10 fiscal years.

Covered by earnings

Dividends take 60.8% of net income.

Cash-flow cover

Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.