Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) stock analysis
Close on Nov 13, 2026Market cap $8.25BP/E 9.9Yield –
StockData Score
Prices as of Nov 13, 2026How the score works
Weak6 of 30 checks passed
Norwegian Cruise Line passes 6 of the 30 checks behind our score; 10 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.
- Valuation
- 3/6
- Growth
- 1/6
- Past performance
- 2/6
- Financial health
- 0/6
- Dividend
- 0/6
What stands out
Trading below fair value
The share price of $17.96 is below our fair value estimate of $20.90.
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 26.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
P/E below the industry
Norwegian Cruise Line's P/E of 9.9 is below the Water Transportation median of 12.3.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Norwegian Cruise Line's EV/EBITDA of 8.8 is below its 5-year median of 9.9.
What to watch
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 14.1% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 31.2% over the last twelve months and averaged -19.1% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 8.2%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
High debt
Debt is 479% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Valuation3/6
P/E against its history
Not enough price and earnings history to compare.
P/E below the industry
Norwegian Cruise Line's P/E of 9.9 is below the Water Transportation median of 12.3.
EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median
Norwegian Cruise Line's EV/EBITDA of 8.8 is below its 5-year median of 9.9.
P/B above the industry
Norwegian Cruise Line's price-to-book of 2.62 is above the Water Transportation median of 2.13.
Trading below fair value
The share price of $17.96 is below our fair value estimate of $20.90.
Margin of safety under 20%
The price is 14.1% below fair value, less than the 20% cushion we look for.
Growth1/6
Revenue growing 10%+ a year
Revenue grew 26.6% a year over the last three fiscal years.
EPS growth over 3 years
Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.
Earnings acceleration
Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.
Growing slower than the industry
Revenue grew 4.9% over the last twelve months; the Water Transportation median is 4.9%.
Guidance lowered
Norwegian Cruise Line lowered its Full year Adjusted Net Income outlook on Oct 29, 2026.
Gross margin slipping
Gross margin was 41.4% over the last twelve months, against 42.0% a year earlier.
Past performance2/6
Return on equity under 15%
Return on equity was 31.2% over the last twelve months and averaged -19.1% over five years; we look for 15% on both.
Return on capital under 10%
Return on invested capital was 8.2%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.
Return on equity above the industry
Norwegian Cruise Line's return on equity of 31.2% is above the Water Transportation median of 13.0%.
Earnings over 5 years
Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.
Net margin above its 5-year average
Net margin was 8.2% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -145%.
Net margin below the industry
Norwegian Cruise Line's net margin of 8.2% is below the Water Transportation median of 11.4%.
Financial health0/6
High debt
Debt is 479% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.
Debt rising against equity
Debt to equity rose from 271% five years ago to 479%.
Debt not well covered by cash flow
Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 14.4% of total debt; we look for at least 20%.
Interest coverage
Interest expense is not reported separately.
Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts
Current assets are 0.22 times current liabilities.
Elevated bankruptcy risk
The Altman Z-score is 0.35; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.
Dividend0/6
No dividend
Norwegian Cruise Line has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.
Yield against Treasuries
No dividend.
Yield against the market
No dividend.
Dividend stability
No dividend.
Earnings cover
No dividend.
Cash-flow cover
No dividend.
Fair value
How we estimate itOur estimate per share
$20.90
The share price is 14% below this estimate.
| Method | Multiple used | Own 5Y median | Industry median | Value per share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.3× | – | 12.3× | $22.37 | 44% |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3× | 9.9× | 8.8× | $21.06 | 39% |
| Earnings power | 13.7% cost of equity | – | – | $16.57 | 17% |
| Fair value | $20.90 | 100% | |||
Valuation over time
Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.
- P/E at month end
- Water Transportation median 12.3
An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.
Market risk
From the past year of daily prices.
Liquidity
Low risk
- Average value traded per day
- $348.03M
- Value traded per 1% price move
- $161.02M
Downside
Medium risk
- Typical loss in a bad month
- 24.0%
- Volatility (annualized)
- 55%
- Sharpe ratio, 1 year
- -0.18
- Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
- 1.72
Typical bad-month loss, week by week
Margins
Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
Growth rates
Compound annual growth to fiscal 2025
| Per year | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Five-year pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +3.7% | +26.6% | +50.3% | +8.5% | |
| Gross profit | +10.5% | +93.7% | – | – | |
| Operating income | +6.5% | – | – | +8.3% | |
| Net income | -53.5% | – | – | -0.1% | |
| EPS, diluted | -51.3% | – | – | -6.8% |
Returns and balance sheet
10 fiscal years. Hover a measure to see how it is calculated.
| Measure | FY2016 | FY2020 | FY2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity | 15.2% | -73.8% | 23.3% | |
| Return on assets | 5.0% | -22.9% | 2.0% | |
| Current ratio | 0.18 | 1.86 | 0.21 | |
| Debt to equity | 1.41 | 2.71 | 6.61 | |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 4.57× | -3.10× | 5.29× | |
| Interest coverage | 3.3× | -7.2× | – | |
| Inventory turnover | – | 19.0× | 39.2× | |
| Capex to revenue | 22.4% | 74.0% | 33.2% | |
| Diluted shares | 228M | 255M | 478M |
Where the cash went
Fiscal 2021 to 2025, five years combined
Norwegian Cruise Line generated $8.82B from operations and spent $9.76B on capital expenditure, dividends and share buybacks. 100% of that went back into the business.
DuPont analysis
Return on equity split into margin, efficiency and leverage
| Fiscal year | Net margin | Asset turnover | Equity multiplier | Return on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 4.3% | 0.46× | 11.69× | 23.3% |
| FY2024 | 9.6% | 0.48× | 22.86× | 105.5% |
| FY2023 | 1.9% | 0.45× | 103.01× | 90.0% |
| FY2022 | -46.9% | 0.26× | 14.91× | -181.5% |
| FY2021 | -695.5% | 0.03× | 5.47× | -132.8% |
| FY2020 | -313.5% | 0.07× | 3.23× | -73.8% |
| FY2019 | 14.4% | 0.41× | 2.56× | 14.9% |
| FY2018 | 15.8% | 0.41× | 2.50× | 16.3% |
| FY2017 | 14.1% | 0.40× | 2.63× | 14.8% |
| FY2016 | 13.0% | 0.39× | 3.03× | 15.2% |
Piotroski F-Score
Nine tests of profitability, balance sheet and efficiency, fiscal 2025 against fiscal 2024
- ProfitableNet income above zero$423.25M
- Cash generatingOperating cash flow above zero$2.09B
- Return on assets improvedROA up on the prior year4.7% → 2.1%
- Earnings backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income$2.09B vs $423.25M
- Less leverageLong-term debt to assets fell59.0% → 60.9%
- Better liquidityCurrent ratio rose0.17 → 0.21
- No dilutionShare count did not rise515M → 478M
- Gross margin improvedGross margin up on the prior year39.99% → 42.62%
- More efficientAsset turnover rose0.49 → 0.49
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