Carnival Corp Ltd. (CCL) stock analysis

P/E below its 5-year median

Carnival's P/E of 13.4 is below its own 5-year median of 15.7.

P/E above the industry

Carnival's P/E of 13.4 is above the Water Transportation median of 12.7.

EV/EBITDA below its 5-year median

Carnival's EV/EBITDA of 8.7 is below its 5-year median of 9.6.

P/B above the industry

Carnival's price-to-book of 2.91 is above the Water Transportation median of 2.12.

Trading above fair value

The share price of $30.68 is above our fair value estimate of $29.66.

Margin of safety under 20%

The price is 3.4% above fair value, so there is no margin of safety.

Revenue growing 10%+ a year

Revenue grew 29.8% a year over the last three fiscal years.

EPS growth over 3 years

Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

Earnings acceleration

Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

Growing faster than the industry

Revenue grew 5.2% over the last twelve months; the Water Transportation median is 4.9%.

Guidance raised

Carnival raised its Full Year 2026 Adjusted net income (in millions) outlook on Sep 29, 2026.

Gross margin trend

This company does not report gross profit.

Return on equity under 15%

Return on equity was 24.0% over the last twelve months and averaged -14.6% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

Return on capital over 10%

Return on invested capital was 11.9%, above the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

Return on equity above the industry

Carnival's return on equity of 24.0% is above the Water Transportation median of 13.0%.

Earnings over 5 years

Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

Net margin above its 5-year average

Net margin was 11.4% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of -106%.

Net margin below the industry

Carnival's net margin of 11.4% is below the Water Transportation median of 11.4%.

High debt

Debt is 169% of shareholders' equity, above the 40% we consider low.

Debt rising against equity

Debt to equity rose from 131% five years ago to 169%.

Debt covered by cash flow

Operating cash flow over the last twelve months equals 28.5% of total debt.

Interest not well covered

Operating income covers interest expense 3.8 times; we look for at least 5.

Short-term assets don't cover short-term debts

Current assets are 0.27 times current liabilities.

Elevated bankruptcy risk

The Altman Z-score is 1.47; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Pays a dividend

Carnival paid dividends worth 1.5% of the share price over the last twelve months.

Yield below Treasuries

The 1.5% yield is below the 4.4% on a 1-year Treasury.

Yield below the top quarter

The top quarter of US dividend payers yield 3.8% or more; Carnival yields 1.5%.

Dividend stability

Fewer than five years of dividend history.

Earnings cover

Needs dividends paid and net income.

Cash-flow cover

Needs dividends paid and free cash flow.