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Medifast Inc (MED) stock analysis

MEDNYSEMiscellaneous Food Preparations & Kindred ProductsFiscal year ends December 31
Financials through Q3 FY2026, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026Last filing: 10-Q on Oct 26, 2026Score 10/3064% below fair value
$12.86−0.27 (-2.06%)

Close on Nov 12, 2026Market cap $143.81MP/E –Yield 0.00%

StockData Score

Prices as of Nov 11, 2026How the score works

Value3Growth1Performance0Health6Dividend0

Mixed10 of 30 checks passed

Medifast passes 10 of the 30 checks behind our score; 11 could not be run for lack of data and count as not passed. Each dot in the shape is one check — hover it for the numbers.

Valuation
3/6
Growth
1/6
Past performance
0/6
Financial health
6/6
Dividend
0/6

What stands out

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 64.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $13.13 is below our fair value estimate of $36.77.

  • No debt

    Medifast has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Interest well covered

    No meaningful interest expense to cover.

What to watch

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -20.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 43.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -110%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -37.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew -30.3% over the last twelve months; the Food and Kindred Products median is 2.7%.

Valuation3/6

  • P/E against its history

    Not enough price and earnings history to compare.

  • P/E against the industry

    Needs positive earnings and enough profitable companies in the industry.

  • EV/EBITDA against its history

    Needs positive EBITDA and price history.

  • P/B below the industry

    Medifast's price-to-book of 0.81 is below the Food and Kindred Products median of 2.12.

  • Trading below fair value

    The share price of $13.13 is below our fair value estimate of $36.77.

  • Margin of safety over 20%

    The price is 64.3% below fair value, more than the 20% cushion we look for.

Growth1/6

  • Revenue growing under 10% a year

    Revenue grew -37.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, short of the 10% we look for.

  • EPS growth over 3 years

    Needs positive EPS three years ago and today.

  • Earnings acceleration

    Needs positive net income now, a year ago and five years ago.

  • Growing slower than the industry

    Revenue grew -30.3% over the last twelve months; the Food and Kindred Products median is 2.7%.

  • Guidance raised

    Medifast raised its full year 2026 loss per share outlook on Aug 3, 2026.

  • Gross margin slipping

    Gross margin was 69.2% over the last twelve months, against 72.4% a year earlier.

Past performance0/6

  • Return on equity under 15%

    Return on equity was -20.7% over the last twelve months and averaged 43.8% over five years; we look for 15% on both.

  • Return on capital under 10%

    Return on invested capital was -110%, below the 10% that usually covers the cost of capital.

  • Return on equity below the industry

    Medifast's return on equity of -20.7% is below the Food and Kindred Products median of 6.6%.

  • Earnings over 5 years

    Needs positive net income five years ago and in the latest year.

  • Net margin below its 5-year average

    Net margin was -13.6% over the last twelve months, against a 5-year average of 4.9%.

  • Net margin below the industry

    Medifast's net margin of -13.6% is below the Food and Kindred Products median of 2.7%.

Financial health6/6

  • No debt

    Medifast has no borrowings on its latest balance sheet.

  • Debt not rising

    With no debt today, leverage cannot have risen.

  • Debt covered by cash flow

    There is no debt to cover.

  • Interest well covered

    No meaningful interest expense to cover.

  • Short-term assets cover short-term debts

    Current assets are 4.82 times current liabilities.

  • Low bankruptcy risk

    The Altman Z-score is 3.84; above 3 is the safe zone and below 1.8 the distress zone.

Dividend0/6

  • No dividend

    Medifast has not paid a dividend in the last twelve months.

  • Yield against Treasuries

    No dividend.

  • Yield against the market

    No dividend.

  • Dividend stability

    No dividend.

  • Earnings cover

    No dividend.

  • Cash-flow cover

    No dividend.

Scores of similar companies

Fair value

How we estimate it

Our estimate per share

$36.77

The share price is 64% below this estimate.

20%+ below
Near fair value
20%+ above
$13.13Price$36.77Fair value
MethodMultiple usedOwn 5Y medianIndustry medianValue per shareWeight
P/B1.7×1.3×2.1×$27.8629%
P/S0.6×0.4×0.8×$16.3429%
Earnings power8.4% cost of equity––$56.3343%
Fair value$36.77100%

Valuation over time

Using the earnings and balance sheet published at each date, not today's.

  • P/E at month end
  • Own 5-year median 8.7
  • Food and Kindred Products median 21.0

An estimate from reported numbers and market multiples, not a price target or investment advice. It can be far off for companies whose profits are about to change sharply.

Market risk

From the past year of daily prices.

Liquidity

High risk

Average value traded per day
$1.54M
Value traded per 1% price move
$1.06M

Downside

Medium risk

Typical loss in a bad month
15.4%
Volatility (annualized)
54%
Sharpe ratio, 1 year
0.13
Beta to the S&P 500 (5Y)
0.71

Typical bad-month loss, week by week

25%: high

Margins

Share of revenue, fiscal years 2011 to 2025

Gross margin

71.3%−3.3 pts over 5 years

Operating margin

-3.7%−18.0 pts over 5 years

Net margin

-4.8%−15.8 pts over 5 years

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